Saturday, 17 August 2019

VSO

 VSO

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excellent div - 7% (2026) but partly franked
low portfolio turnover , thus less CGT

The Vanguard MSCI Australian Small Companies Index ETF (ASX: VSO) trades around AU$75.50. It tracks Australian small-cap companies outside the top tier. It offers growth potential, diversification away from big banks and miners, and charges a 0.30% management fee. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Fund Overview and Strategy
  • Tracks the MSCI Australian Shares Small Cap Index.
  • Holds roughly 180 smaller listed companies.
  • Focuses on sectors like industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary.
  • Designed for long-term capital growth rather than steady blue-chip income. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Key Features
  • Cost: Management fee of 0.30% per year.
  • Dividends: Pays semi-annual distributions with partial franking credits.
  • Risk Profile: Higher price swings than large-cap funds like VAS due to small-cap market exposure.
  • Top Holdings Exposure: Includes growing mid-tier firms and diverse non-mining/non-banking entities.

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Size Categories on the ASX
  • Large-Cap ($10 billion+): Major established industry giants and blue-chip stocks (e.g., BHP, Commonwealth Bank, CSL). [1, 2]
  • Mid-Cap ($2 billion to $10 billion): Medium-sized companies that sit outside the top 50 but within the top 100 or 200 (tracked often by the S&P/ASX MidCap 50). Examples include JB Hi-Fi, NextDC, and TechnologyOne. [1, 2, 3]
  • Small-Cap ($300 million to $2 billion): Smaller, growing businesses that sit outside the top 100 companies (tracked by the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries). [1, 2]
  • Micro-Cap (Under $300 million): Very small or emerging companies, often speculative miners or early-stage tech firms. [1, 2]
Key Characteristics
  • Growth Potential: Small and medium companies often have more room to expand their operations than large mega-cap stocks. [1]
  • Higher Risk: They can be more volatile, face tighter access to capital, and have lower daily trading liquidity (fewer shares traded daily). [1]
  • Sector Diversity: Unlike the large-cap ASX, which is dominated by major banks and mining firms, small-to-medium brackets include a wider mix of technology, healthcare, specialized retail, and emerging resources. [1]
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ARGO vs VSO buffett 2026 sept
ASX:ARG (Argo Investments) and ASX:VSO (Vanguard MSCI Australian Small Companies ETF) represent two completely fundamentally distinct approaches to investing in the Australian share market. [1, 2]
Argo is a legendary, internally-managed Listed Investment Company (LIC) focusing on heavy blue-chip income, whereas VSO is a passive ETF tracking highly volatile, small-capitalization companies. [1, 2, 3, 4]
From a Warren Buffett value-investing paradigm, these assets present a stark contrast between a "moat-and-cash-flow" compounder and an "unpredictable, capital-intensive" basket.
The Head-to-Head Snapshot
MetricASX:ARG (Argo)ASX:VSO (Vanguard Small Caps)
Primary FocusBlue-chip ASX Top 100 Income & ValueEmerging & Small-Cap Capital Growth
Structure / StyleActive/Internal LIC (Buffett-style conglomerate)Passive Index ETF
Current P/E Ratio26.5x (Highly elevated vs. long-term historical norms)~15x - 17x (Typically cheaper underlying earnings due to small-cap risk)
Dividend Yield (Gross)~4.2% (approx. 6.0% grossed up with 100% Franking)~4.7% (approx. 5.3% grossed up with ~40% Franking)
10-Year Growth ProfileSlow, reliable upward trend matching the ASX 200Cyclical, volatile, underperformed large-caps past 5–10 years
Management Costs (MER)0.14%0.30%

Deep-Dive Analysis: The Buffett Perspective
1. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) & Margin of Safety
  • ARG: Trading at 26.5x P/E, which Buffett would view as expensive for a low-growth diversified investment vehicle. This premium often expands because Australian retail investors bid up old-line LICs for their reliable income streams. [1, 2, 3]
  • VSO: Small caps naturally possess lower average multiple structures during tightening cycles or stagnant economic growth. Buffett prefers companies with predictable earnings. VSO's constituent earnings are inherently highly volatile and capital-intensive, which diminishes the utility of a standard P/E multiple.
2. Long-Term Growth (10-Year Horizon)
  • ARG: Historically matches or slightly trails the broader ASX 200 accumulation index (returning roughly 7% to 8% p.a. long term). Its growth is steady, driven by massive financial and mining enterprises like BHP and the Big Four banks. [1, 2]
  • VSO: Small caps in Australia have historically faced structural headwinds. VSO has recorded approximately 6.1% p.a. over 5 years, lagging behind large-cap indexes. Buffett would note that Australian small caps generally lack structural competitive advantages (moats) and are highly exposed to macroeconomic downturns. [1]
3. Dividend Yield & Consistency
  • ARG: This is where ARG excels in a Buffett-style assessment. ARG has paid a dividend every single year since 1946. Because it is a corporate LIC structure, it uses a profit reserve to smooth out dividends during market crashes (like the 2008 GFC or 2020 pandemic). It passes along 100% Franking Credits.
  • VSO: Because it is a trust structure, it must pass forward exactly what it receives each year. Consequently, its distributions fluctuate wildly depending on whether its cyclical small-cap resource companies are profitable. Furthermore, franking is poor (~40%) because many small companies re-invest cash or do not pay domestic corporate tax. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
4. Dividend Growth
  • ARG: Features steady, incremental dividend growth. It just raised its full-year dividend to 38.5 cents per share (and announced a transition to reliable 10c quarterly payments).
  • VSO: Highly unpredictable dividend growth. While it boasts occasional high-yield windfall years, the 1-year dividend growth trend recently saw a sharp contraction. It does not offer a sustainable growth trajectory for income-reliant portfolios. [1, 2, 3, 4]

The Verdict: How Would Buffett Choose?
Warren Buffett would unequivocally favor ASX:ARG over VSO, but with a major valuation caveat: [1, 2]
  1. Business Predictability: Buffett values a "predictable stream of cash instructions." ARG owns the ultimate cash cows of Australia. VSO owns unprofitable or early-stage enterprises lacking durable moats. [1, 2]
  2. The Valuation Problem: Buffett famously states, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." While he would prefer ARG's underlying assets, he would likely wait for its P/E multiple to compress closer to historical averages before deploying significant capital. [1, 2]

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