Thursday, 9 April 2026
Friday, 23 January 2026
Vidirol: Kickstarter VST demo (hands on)
Saturday, 13 December 2025
Moog Labyrinth - initial thoughts
Saturday, 29 November 2025
Roland PG1000 programmer - connections to use with D-50
Tuesday, 11 November 2025
Sir John Templeton
- Meaning: This quote highlights the emotional cycle of market bubbles. "Euphoria" represents the final stage where greed peaks, investors ignore risks, and prices become unsustainable, usually resulting in a market crash.
- Alternative phrasing: He was also known to say, "The market is always born in despair, grows in doubt, matures in longing, and perishes in hope".
Monday, 3 November 2025
Property vs Shares - which is better over 30 years.
Now we’re comparing apples-to-apples with capital on both sides, which is much more interesting:
- Property: $500k deposit + $500k mortgage
- Shares: $500k upfront + $3,000/month
- Time horizon: 30 years
I’ll walk through this cleanly and then give you the real-world conclusion.
📊 Key assumptions (based on real Australian data)
- Australian shares: ~9–10% p.a. long-term
-
Property:
- ~5–6% capital growth
- ~7–9% total return incl. rent (before costs)
🏠 Scenario A — Property
Inputs
- $1M property
- $500k loan
- ~$3,000/month repayments
- 30 years
💰 Total cash invested
- Deposit: $500k
-
Mortgage payments: ~$1.1M
👉 Total out-of-pocket ≈ $1.6M
📈 Property value after 30 years
- 5% growth → $4.3M
- 6% growth → $5.7M
- 7% growth → $7.6M
🧾 Net wealth
Mortgage is fully paid off:
👉 Final wealth ≈ $4.3M – $7.6M
⚠️ Reality check (VERY important)
Property returns are not clean:
- Stamp duty (~$40–50k)
- Maintenance (~1–2%/yr)
- Insurance, rates
- Selling costs
👉 These can reduce returns by 1–2% per year, which is massive over 30 years
📈 Scenario B — Shares
Inputs
- $500k upfront
- $3,000/month for 30 years
- Total invested = $1.58M (almost identical to property)
💰 Future value
At different return levels:
- 7% → $5.9M
- 8% → $7.5M
- 9% → $9.6M
- 10% → $12.4M
- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Scenario | Property | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Total invested | ~$1.6M | ~$1.58M |
| Leverage | Yes | No |
| Expected return | ~6–8% net | ~8–10% |
| Final wealth | $4.3M–$7.6M | $5.9M–$12.4M |
| Risk | Concentrated | Diversified |
| Liquidity | Low | High |
Now we’ll include:
- 🏠 Rental income (property)
- 📈 Dividends (shares)
And compare total return properly.
🏠 Scenario A — Property (with rent)
Assumptions (typical Australia)
- Property value: $1M
- Rental yield: 3–4%
- Growth: 5–6% p.a.
- Costs: ~1.5–2% p.a. (maintenance, rates, insurance, vacancy)
💰 Rental income
- Gross rent: $30k–$40k/year
- Costs: ~$15k–$20k/year
👉 Net rent: ~$10k–$20k/year initially
Important:
- Rent grows over time (inflation + demand)
- By year 30 → could be ~$40k–$80k/year net
📈 Total return breakdown
Property total return ≈
- Capital growth: 5–6%
- Net rental yield: ~1–2% after costs
👉 Total ≈ 6–8% p.a.
💰 Final outcome (30 years)
- Property value: $4.3M – $5.7M (5–6%)
- Plus rental income accumulated (if reinvested): adds ~$0.5M–$1.5M
👉 Total effective wealth: ~$5M – $7M
📈 Scenario B — Shares (with dividends)
Assumptions (Australian market)
Using something like the S&P/ASX 200 Index:
- Dividend yield: ~4%
- Growth: ~5–6%
- Total return: ~9–10% p.a.
💰 Dividends
Year 1:
- $500k × 4% = $20k/year
Over time:
- Dividends grow with market (~5–6%)
By year 30:
- Annual dividends ≈ $150k–$300k/year
🔁 Reinvestment effect (this is huge)
If dividends are reinvested:
👉 They drive ~50%+ of total returns
💰 Final outcome (30 years)
With:
- $500k upfront
- $3k/month
- 9–10% return
👉 Portfolio value:
- $9M – $12M
Breakdown:
- Capital: ~$6M–$8M
- Dividends compounding: ~$3M–$4M
I’ll compare:
- 🏠 Property with negative gearing → later positive gearing
- 📈 Shares with dividends + franking credits
Using realistic Australian assumptions.
🇦🇺 Key tax concepts (quickly)
Shares → Franking credits
Using something like the S&P/ASX 200 Index:
- Dividends are often fully franked
- Company already paid 30% tax
- You get a tax credit for that
- Result: higher effective income, especially if your tax rate <30%
Property → Negative gearing
- Early years: losses (interest > rent)
- Loss reduces your taxable income → tax refund
- Later: becomes positively geared → taxable income
🏠 PROPERTY — After-tax reality
Early years (negative gearing phase)
Typical:
- Rent: ~$30k
-
Costs + interest: ~$40k–$45k
👉 Loss: ~$10k–$15k
If you're on a 37% tax rate:
👉 Tax refund: $3.7k–$5.5k/year
✔️ Helps cash flow
❌ But you're still losing money overall
Later years (positive gearing)
Once rent rises and loan shrinks:
- Rent: ~$60k–$80k
-
Costs: ~$20k
👉 Profit: ~$40k–$60k
Tax:
- At 37% → $15k–$22k tax/year
Capital gains tax (CGT)
If investment property:
- 50% CGT discount after 12 months
Example:
- Gain: $4M
- Taxable: $2M
- Tax ≈ $740k (at 37%)
🧾 Property after-tax summary
- Tax benefits early: moderate
- Tax drag later: significant
- Big CGT bill at the end
👉 Net effect:
Tax reduces returns by ~1–2% per year over long term
📈 SHARES — After-tax reality
Dividends + franking
Example:
- Dividend yield: 4%
- Fully franked
On $500k:
- Cash dividend: $20k
- Franking credit: ~$8.6k
- Grossed-up income: ~$28.6k
Tax impact
If tax rate = 37%:
- Tax on $28.6k = ~$10.6k
- Minus franking credit ($8.6k)
👉 Tax payable: ~$2k only
If tax rate <30%:
👉 You actually get a refund
Capital gains (shares)
- Same 50% CGT discount
-
BUT:
- You control when to sell
- Can spread gains across years
👉 Much more tax flexibility than property
🧾 Shares after-tax summary
- Dividends: tax-efficient
- Franking credits: huge advantage
- CGT: controllable
👉 Net effect:
Tax drag closer to 0.5–1% per year
⚖️ AFTER-TAX COMPARISON
| Factor | Property | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Early tax benefit | ✅ Negative gearing | ❌ None needed |
| Ongoing tax | ❌ High (rent taxed) | ✅ Reduced via franking |
| CGT flexibility | ❌ Low (sell all at once) | ✅ High (sell gradually) |
| Tax efficiency | ❌ Moderate | ✅ High |
| Net return after tax | ~5–6% | ~7–9% |
🧠 The big insight
👉 Negative gearing is often overrated
It:
- Reduces losses
- But doesn’t create profit
You’re still:
Spending $1 to get ~$0.37 back
👉 Franking credits are underrated
They:
- Boost income significantly
- Reduce or eliminate tax
- Compound over time
🔥 What this does to your original comparison
Before tax:
- Property: ~6–8%
- Shares: ~9–10%
After tax:
- Property: ~5–6%
- Shares: ~7–9%
👉 The gap actually widens in favour of shares
🏁 Final conclusion
After tax (including negative gearing and franking credits), shares are significantly more tax-efficient and typically deliver higher net returns than a leveraged investment property.
⚠️ One exception (very important)
If the property is your PPOR (home you live in):
- ❌ No negative gearing
- ✅ No capital gains tax EVER
👉 That is a massive advantage
In that case:
Property can outperform shares purely due to CGT exemption
Saturday, 1 November 2025
Roland D-50 - backing patches and sound banks to computer & from PC , M256e ram card









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