Thursday, 26 September 2024

The phases of coffee roasting

Coffee roasting happens in several distinct phases, each marked by chemical and physical changes in the beans that shape the flavor, aroma, and color of the final coffee. 

We have two main things to control: Time & Temperature.
We also need to monitor the rates of rise (steepness of the time/temp curve) during roasting .
Each phase will have a target time, temperature and rate of rise (ROR).

It's important to note events like when the colours of the beans change,
when they start to change their smell (things like bread or sweetness) or when we reach first crack, etc.
It's helpful if you write down the temperatures (every 30 secs).

While terminology can vary slightly among roasters, here are the main phases commonly recognized:

Notice that the ROR tends to descend as we progress through the different phases.
That is the ROR gradient for the browning phase is gentler than the drying phase.

☕ 1. Drying Phase (Endothermic)

Temperature range: ~100°C–160°C (212°F–320°F)
Duration: 4–8 minutes (depending on roast profile)
Green coffee starts with about 10–12% moisture.
Heat is applied to evaporate this water without burning the beans.
Beans turn from green to a light yellow and begin to smell grassy or hay-like.
The roasting environment absorbs energy (endothermic process).

Goal: Properly remove moisture to prepare beans for chemical reactions in later stages.
Don't rush this phase or the inside of the bean may not get evenly dried 

🌾 2. Maillard Reaction Phase (Browning Phase)

Temperature range: ~160°C–190°C (320°F–375°F)
Sugars and amino acids react (the Maillard reaction), creating brown pigments and complex flavor precursors. 
The bean color deepens from yellow to light brown.
Caramelization and sweetness actually start to develop  when beans turn yellow.
Caramelization = applying heat to the natural sugars inside the coffee beans to bring out sweetness.
Amino acids are what give acidity when they are heated.
Aromas shift from grassy to toasty, nutty, and bread-like.
Internal bean pressure starts building as gases (CO₂, water vapor) form.

Goal: Develop the foundational flavors and aromas that define the coffee’s character.
Timing this phase is very important ... its must not be too fast or too slow.
Too Fast:
It is important not to rush this phase or the coffee can turn out too bitter or tart.
Or if this phase is rushed, the caramelization or acidity may not form.
Too Slow:
The chemical reactions become muted and we loose acidity ... we end with a bitter/flat/baked coffee


🌋 3. First Crack (Exothermic)

Temperature range: ~196°C–205°C (385°F–400°F)
Internal pressure causes the beans to crack open audibly.
This marks the transition from endothermic to exothermic — the beans release energy.
The coffee expands in size, and oils may begin to migrate toward the surface.

Goal: Achieve the first clear milestone of roast development — suitable for light roasts.

🌑 4. Development Phase (Roast Development Phase)

Temperature range: ~205°C–220°C (400°F–430°F)
After the first crack, the roast can be stopped or continued depending on desired profile.
Caramelization and pyrolysis intensify, creating sweetness, body, and deeper flavor.
Roasters control time here carefully to balance acidity, sweetness, and bitterness.
The longer you go into this stage, the less sweet and acidity you will get and the more bitter your coffee will be. 
The longer this stage , the more you are roasting out the sweetness & acidity.
Goal: Fine-tune the flavor — too short can taste sour/undeveloped; too long can taste bitter or smoky.
Here you can balance acidity (the fruit bomb) or sweetness

🔥 5. Second Crack (Optional – for Dark Roasts)

Temperature range: ~224°C–230°C (435°F–446°F)
Beans crack again (softer and quieter).
Cell structure breaks down, and oils appear on the surface.
Flavors become darker, more roasted, with smoky or even burnt notes if pushed too far.

Goal: Produce darker roasts such as French or Italian — bold, less acidic, more bitter.

⚙️ 6. Cooling Phase

Immediately after roasting
Beans are rapidly cooled (usually by air or water) to stop further roasting.
Proper cooling locks in the developed flavors and prevents over-roasting.
Would you like me to include a temperature/time curve diagram showing these phases visually? It’s a great way to see how roast development progresses.


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Roasting with sight and smell
Things to watch for if you are roasting without any temp probes:


Track the progression of the roast by looking at the bean colour.
We start with a dark green shade.
When it gets to the drying stage it changes to a yellow.
When the beans go "full yellow" we have reached the end of the drying phase.
When the beans are green you often smell "wet grass". 
As they dry you smell "dry grass". You will often smell "sweetness".
The next stage is the browning stage. You will smell "baked goods", like biscuits straight from the oven.
You will also see that the beans are larger in size. They swell as they dry.
So they should occupy more "height" or volume in your roaster.
The beans are also lighter, so they should be thrown higher in the roasting chamber.
We are approaching 1st crack. You might smell vinegar/ acid.
If you like fruity, citrus, floral notes drop the coffee just after 1st crack.
If you like more chocolate, caramel, sweet notes, continue roasting.
You should see the bean mass really moving as they are much lighter 

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Friday, 20 September 2024

Peru coffee growing regions

Peru's main coffee-growing regions are its northern, central, and southern highlands, each producing unique flavor profiles due to varying altitudes and climates.
Notable areas include Amazonas, Cajamarca, and San Martín in the north; Junín (Chanchamayo) in the central region; and Cusco and Puno in the south. These regions produce a range of Arabica coffees, from mild and nutty to fruity and complex, with high-altitude beans often showing brighter acidity. 

Northern Highlands
Regions: Amazonas, Cajamarca, and San Martín.
Characteristics: Situated on the eastern slopes of the Andes, this region features a mix of jungle and mountain geography.
Flavor Profile: Cajamarca is known for its bright acidity and clean cup, while the Amazon region is noted for fruity and tropical notes and a fuller body. 

Central Highlands
Regions: Junín, particularly the Chanchamayo and Satipo provinces.
Characteristics: Located in the central Andes, coffee is grown at elevations typically ranging from 900 to 1,800 meters.
Flavor Profile: Often produces balanced, smooth coffees with mild acidity and nutty or chocolatey notes. High-altitude beans can be more fruity with intense acidity and a creamy body.
 
Southern Highlands
Regions: Cusco, Ayacucho, and Puno.
Characteristics: This area is known for its specialty coffee production, benefiting from rich soils and unique microclimates.
Flavor Profile: Coffees from this region can have bold, earthy flavors and nutty tastes, often with mild acidity due to the higher altitudes. 

Wednesday, 18 September 2024

Sumatra (Indonesia)

 Coffee from Sumatra (an island in western Indonesia) is famous in the specialty coffee world for its distinctive flavor profile, unique processing methods, and rich history. 




Here are the key points:

🌱 Origin & Varieties
Grown primarily in the highlands of Aceh (Gayo), Lintong, Mandheling, and Sidikalang.
Most farms are smallholder plots (often less than a hectare per farmer).
Common varieties: Typica, Catimor, and hybrids adapted to local conditions.

☕ Flavor Profile
Sumatran coffees are often described as:
Full-bodied & syrupy – heavier mouthfeel than most other origins.
Low acidity – smooth, mellow, sometimes earthy.
Flavor notes – chocolate, tobacco, cedar, spices, herbs, sometimes tropical fruit.
Often a little "earthy" or "funky", which many coffee lovers prize.

🌀 Processing Method: Giling Basah (Wet Hulling)
A hallmark of Sumatran coffee.
After fermentation, beans are parchment-dried only to ~30–40% moisture (instead of the usual 10–12%).
Farmers then wet-hull (remove the parchment layer while still moist) and continue drying.
This process gives Sumatran coffee its deep, complex, and sometimes rustic flavors, but also contributes to its unique bluish-green raw bean color.

🌍 Cultural & Economic Importance
Coffee has been grown in Sumatra since the Dutch colonial period (1600s–1700s).
It was introduced by the Dutch East India Company.

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🌍 Main Sumatran Coffee Regions (Side-by-Side)

Region / NameLocationFlavor ProfileNotes
MandhelingNorth Sumatra, near Lake TobaHeavy body, low acidity, earthy, chocolate, herbal, sometimes tobaccoThe most famous Sumatran coffee; "Mandheling" isn’t a place but an ethnic group — the name stuck in trade.
LintongSouthwest of Lake Toba (Lintong Nihuta area)Cleaner, brighter than Mandheling, with herbal, spicy, citrus, and floral tonesConsidered a “refined” version of Sumatran coffee; often preferred in specialty circles.
Gayo (Aceh)Aceh highlands, northern tip of SumatraBalanced, complex, sweet, syrupy body with cocoa, red fruit, and spice notesGrown at higher altitudes (up to 1,700+ m), often organic; one of the most prized.
SidikalangWest of Lake Toba, near Bukit Barisan mountainsBold, full-bodied, chocolate, nutty, slight fruitinessLess well-known but increasingly recognized for quality.

 
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Aceh
Elevations are between 900 - 1500m. The highlands are cool but humid.
The region is rich in volcanic soil.
These are optimal growing conditions for Arabica varieties such as: Ateng, Gayo 1, Timtim, and Abyssinia.



Links:
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Tuesday, 17 September 2024

BRG - Breville

 BRG - Breville
05/07/26

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Over the last 5 years, Breville Group (ASX:BRG) has demonstrated strong, steady growth. Revenue nearly doubled from $0.98B in FY21 to $1.70B in FY25, pushing net profit up to $135.9M. The balance sheet has remained exceptionally healthy, with the Debt-to-Equity ratio shrinking to (0.12) in FY25 and hovering around (0.28) as of early 2026. Return on Equity (ROE) has stayed consistently robust, averaging 16.8% between 2021 and 2025. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Financial Snapshot
  • Profit (NPAT): Grew reliably over the last five years, climbing from $91M in FY21 to $135.9M in FY25. This upward trend continued into the first half of FY26, where revenue hit a record $1.10B with a net income of $98.2M. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

  • Debt: The company maintains a very safe and conservative balance sheet. While long-term debt was around $257.5M in 2023, the company successfully paid it down, recording a net cash position of $48.5M at the end of FY25. By 1H26, net debt sat at a comfortable $43.6M. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • ROE (Return on Equity): Peaked at 19.7% in 2021 and stabilized between 13.5% and 15.9% from 2022 to 2026. This continues to track well above the global industry average. [1, 2, 3]


  • Dividends: Supported by reliable free cash flow, the board maintained a targeted ~40% payout ratio, offering fully franked dividends that grew to 37.0 cents per share in FY25. [1, 2, 3]
It's a steady dividend payer. Though the dividends haven't quite recovered to the levels of 2020 when the craze for making coffee at home during COVID was at it's height.


Current Valuation & Forecast
Recently, BRG has been trading at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio near 33.8. While the stock price has seen some volatility—falling roughly 14% over a 90-day period in early 2026—analysts forecast continued revenue growth of 7.5% annually over the coming years, outpacing the broader global consumer durables sector
PE Ratios
The mean historical Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for Breville Group Limited (ASX: BRG) over the last 10 years is 30.54, with a historical range swinging between a minimum of 19.21 and a maximum of 49.70. [1, 2, 3]
Historical P/E Ratio Data (10-Year Breakdown)
The table below tracks Breville's annual fiscal P/E ratios over the last decade, showing a clear contraction during 2022 followed by an upward re-rating through 2025 and 2026: [1, 2, 3]
Year / Period [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]P/E RatioKey Market Drivers
Current (Mid-2026)34.24Valuation premium sustained by steady international sales.
202531.71Normalizing premium over peer averages.
202433.18Upward valuation correction as margins steadied.
202326.20Partial recovery post-rate hike shocks.
202223.6010-year low due to global supply chain pressures.
202149.70Historical peak driven by the work-from-home appliance boom.
202045.68Initial pandemic-induced demand spike for kitchen premium goods.
201928.63Solid trading history aligned with long-term median.
201824.50Baseline valuation reflecting steady global expansion.
201721.80Moderate growth multiple prior to aggressive scaling.
201619.21Period low reflecting more localized APAC operations.
Core Valuation Insights
  • Premium Over Peers: Breville traditionally commands a higher trading multiple compared to the broader ASX Consumer Durables industry average, which historically hovers around 13.8x. [1]
  • Growth Expectations: Investors pay a higher multiple due to the company's strong brand equity and its track record of expanding premium product lines into global regions like Europe and the Americas. [1, 2, 3]
share price
I think its a bit expensive at the moment July 2026.
Buy below $26.50






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Friday, 13 September 2024

Indian Coffee growing regions

 India's coffee regions are primarily categorized into three areas: 
1. traditional regions in Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu in the south; 
2. non-traditional regions like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha in the Eastern Ghats; 
3. the Northeastern states, including Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh.
Karnataka, particularly the Bababudangiris where coffee was first introduced, is the largest coffee-producing state. 

Traditional Regions: Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu 
Karnataka: The largest coffee-producing state, with regions like Coorg and Chikmagalur being historically significant. 
The Bababudangiri hills are known as the birthplace of coffee in India.
Kerala: A major coffee hub, particularly in the Wayanad district, which cultivates both Arabica and Robusta beans, with Robusta being more dominant.
Tamil Nadu: Coffee is grown in the Anaimalai hills and the Nilgiris, often in high-elevation plantations that produce Arabica with bright acidity. 

Non-Traditional Regions: Andhra Pradesh and Odisha 
Andhra Pradesh: The Araku Valley is a growing specialty coffee region recognized for its tribal cooperative-led production.
Odisha: The Koraput region is another area gaining recognition for growing Arabica coffee.

Northeastern Regions 
The "Seven Sister States": This region includes Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh. 
These states are considered a rising frontier for coffee production, with areas like the Cachar district in Assam growing both Arabica and Robusta. 

Key characteristics of Indian coffee 
Growing conditions: Coffee is often shade-grown under a two-tier canopy, which can lead to a richer flavor. The variety of altitudes and rainfall patterns (ranging from 800mm to 4500 mm) contribute to diverse flavor profiles.
Monsooned coffee: A unique process where beans are exposed to humid monsoon air, resulting in a distinctively mild, low-acid, pale gold bean known as Indian Monsoon Malabar.
Bean varieties: Both Arabica and Robusta are grown, with notable varieties including Kent and S. 795.

Wednesday, 11 September 2024

HVN

 HVN Harvey Norman
09-07-2026

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Over the past 5 years, Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) experienced a peak in profits and Return on Equity (ROE) in 2021/2022 during the pandemic retail boom, followed by a decline in earnings, before rebounding strongly. Debt has remained strictly managed and the company's financial health has stayed sound. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Financial Performance Overview (5-Year Trajectory)
  • Profit & Revenue: The company saw record net profits of about \(\$811.5\) million in FY22. Profits then declined over the next two years as consumer spending normalised. However, the business bounced back significantly, posting a FY25 net profit of \(\$518\) million (a 47% increase from FY24) and an interim net profit of \(\$321.9\) million for 1H26. Total system sales revenue remains robust, exceeding expectations with international store expansions. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
  • Debt Level: The company’s Balance Sheet Health is solid, with a low debt-to-equity ratio consistently hovering between 13% and 21% over the last few years. The low net debt is supported by a massive freehold property portfolio (valued over \(\$4.5\) billion). [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Return on Equity (ROE): ROE peaked at 23% in 2021, but subsequently fell to a low of about 7.9% in FY24 due to rising equity and softer post-COVID earnings. Following the profit recovery in FY25, ROE has since recovered to an estimated 11.55%. [1, 2, 3]
  • Dividends: HVN remains a reliable dividend payer, maintaining or adjusting solid dividend distributions to shareholders, with yields generally trading between 6% and 7%. [1, 2]
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The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN) has fluctuated between a minimum of 4.94 and a maximum of 19.36 over the last 10 years, maintaining a long-term median of 10.93. [1]
Track Annual P/E Ratio Changes
The following table shows the annual P/E ratio for Harvey Norman recorded at the close of each calendar year: [1, 2]
Calendar YearHistorical P/E RatioYear-over-Year Change
202513.7-7.2%
202414.8+93.47%
20237.65+55.43%
20224.92-16.2%
20215.87-47.0%
202011.08+15.5%
20199.59-21.4%
201812.20+6.1%
201711.50-21.1%
201614.58+13.6%
Review 10-Year Statistical Summary
Analyzing the data across the 10-year macro cycle highlights several foundational bounds for the business: [1, 2]
  • 10-Year Mean Average: 10.41
  • 10-Year Median Baseline: 10.93
  • 10-Year Peak High: 19.36
  • 10-Year Cycle Low: 4.94 [1, 2]
Analyze Key Historical Phases
1. The Post-Pandemic Margin Squeeze (2022–2023)
Harvey Norman hit a notable cyclical bottom in 2022 with a P/E drop down to 4.92. This low valuation occurred despite massive consumer electronics spending because the market anticipated a harsh drop-off in discretionary spending due to climbing RBA interest rates. [1]
2. Earnings Compression and Valuation Spike (2024–2025)
The sharp P/E ratio jump to 14.8 in 2024 was primarily driven by standard denominator compression. As net profits contracted under inflation and rising franchise operating costs, the resulting lower Earnings Per Share (EPS) caused the price-to-earnings multiple to distort upward. [1, 2]
3. Modern Trading Context (2026)
The current Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) P/E ratio hovers around 10.28 to 10.62. This sits in line with its 10-year historical median, marking it as significantly discounted relative to the broader ASX retail sector average which sits closer to 18.9x
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