Wednesday, 23 April 2025

La Pavoni Europiccola V1.3 - 1963

Some pics of a early V1.3 Europiccola.
I picked this up on Ebay

The La Pavoni Europiccola (V 1.3, ~1968) sits in the early “pre-millennium” lineage of what is arguably the most famous domestic lever espresso machine ever made. It’s not a separate model name so much as a version classification used by collectors to describe a specific early build period of the Europiccola.











Here’s a clear breakdown of what it is and why it matters.

The Europiccola was introduced in 1961 as La Pavoni’s first true home espresso lever machine, designed to bring café-style espresso into domestic kitchens.

It uses:

  • a manual lever piston group
  • an 800 ml boiler
  • pressure created by a spring/lever system (fully manual extraction)
  • steam capability for milk

It became the template for nearly all later home lever machines.




🧠 Where “V 1.3 (1968)” fits

Collectors usually divide early Europiccolas into informal “versions” based on mechanical changes. A V1.3 around 1968 generally refers to:

  • early production (1960s era)
  • pre-pressurestat machines (no automatic pressure control yet)
  • early grouphead design (simpler, more direct-to-boiler mounting)
  • incremental refinements over the very first 1961–63 units

This is still part of the first-generation Europiccola family, before later structural revisions in the 1970s.

🔧 Key characteristics of a 1968-era Europiccola

1. Early lever group design

  • Fully manual piston group
  • Brass grouphead with minimal internal plastic (or none)
  • Early shower screen and diffusion design

2. Boiler system

  • ~0.8L chromed brass boiler
  • Typically no pressurestat (early units used simple thermostat switching)
  • Takes longer to stabilize temperature compared to later models

3. Controls (very simple)

  • Basic rocker or toggle switches
  • No modern safety cutoffs like later machines
  • Manual pressure management via heating cycles

4. Build philosophy

  • Extremely overbuilt compared to modern machines
  • Heavy use of brass, steel, and chrome plating
  • Designed to last decades with rebuildable parts

🧯 What collectors care about

A 1968 V1.3 machine is considered desirable because:
  • It’s early production (~first decade of Europiccola history)
  • Mostly fully brass internals (less plastic than later machines)
  • Represents the “purest” manual lever experience
  • Still compatible with many modern rebuild parts (gaskets, seals, etc.)

However:

  • Electrical systems are often unsafe by modern standards if unrestored
  • Wiring, switches, and insulation usually need updating
  • Temperature stability is harder than newer models

💡 In practice (what it feels like to use)

Expect:

  • a strong learning curve (very temperature-sensitive)
  • excellent espresso potential once mastered
  • manual “ritual” brewing style similar to vintage café levers
  • no automation at all—you are the pressure and temperature controller


Wednesday, 16 April 2025

Cremina lever profile (for darkly roasted beans)

The Olympia Cremina is a classic lever machine.

It doesn't have a spring.
Like most lever machines it exhibits a declining pressure profile.
This profile is a long shot ... about 45sec.
It uses a fine grind.

With dark roasted beans most of the flavour comes out early in the shot.
Towards the end, the shot is quite watery.

The Cremina uses  a narrow 49mm basket. 

It is characterized by a manual pre-infusion, a pressure ramp-up, and a subsequent pressure decline, all managed by the user's interaction with the lever.




I have a La Pavoni Europiccola which is quite similar.
I like to start the shot when the machine's group head is around 85C.
The end of the shot usually sees the group temp rising over 90c ... sometimes getting to 92-93c.
The classic La pav basket is 14g so you'd aim for 28 out.


Key Aspects of the Cremina Espresso Profile:
Pre-infusion:
The user initiates a pre-infusion phase by gently lifting the lever, allowing water to gently saturate the coffee puck at a lower pressure. 
Here the pressure rises to about 1 bar.

Ramp-up:
As the lever is further depressed, the pressure increases, typically ramping up to a peak pressure as the piston moves through the brew group.  (9 bar though I usually hit around 6-8 bar on my La pavoni)

Pressure Decline:
The user manages the lever's movement to control the pressure, causing a gradual decline towards the end of the shot. 



This is a really flexible profile.
You can pull this as a 1:1 ristretto for that classic Italian shot.
Sometimes I end the shot early at 30secs but you can also pull this with 12g  still at 45 secs.
These lever shots always finish at very low pressures.

This is a screen shot of a lever profile I have loaded into my modded (Gaggimate)
Rancilio Silva.

Red: Temp
Blue: pressure
Green: Flow

The flow peaks twice at 4g/s but drops to 1g/s 




I was using a 58mm to 49mm stepdown basket.

It has a Cremina Lever profile.
The initial dose is 18g. 
Out : 36g



Phases
A preinfusion for 25 secs (zero volume in cup)
  - soak - 15s, 1.1bar pressure
  - Ramp up to 3 bar, 4 s
  - ramp up to 6 bar, 4 secs
  - ramp up to 9 bar , 2 secs 
There should be no coffee in up at this point.



B. Brew stage (40 secs)
   - Ramp down to 8 bar. 10 secs. 6 g volume
   - Ramp down to 7 bar, 10 secs, 14 g volume
   - Ramp down to 6 bar, 10 secs, 26 g volume
   - Ramp down to 5 bar, 10 secs, 36 g volume


The Gaggimate is connected to Bookoo scales via wifi, and the pull shot stops precisely at 36g.







   



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variation 2

Temp settings: 
Higher brew temperatures for lighter roasts, lower brew temperatures for darker roasts

Preinfusion settings: 
    longer (slower flow rate) preinfusion for lighter roasts, 
    shorter (faster flow rate) preinfusion for darker roasts
    After preinfusion, pressure is ramped up to a maximum and then gradually declines. 

Pressure settings:
   Max brew pressure of 6-9 bar (I like 8-9 bar)
    Adjust decline to maintain a fairly steady flow rate (1.0-1.5ml/s) as puck erodes.

Pour time of ~30s (not including preinfusion)

Use the coffee dose suggested by basket manufacturer (but feel free to updose).
 "normale" brew ratio of 1:2 (adjust to your preference)

When starting out, I recommend getting a medium roast house espresso blend from an established specialty coffee roaster. This will maximize your chances of success. Then feel free to branch out to single origin coffees, uber-light roasts, etc.

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Coffee index. Click here :


Tuesday, 15 April 2025

Q162 - sequential switch used as a Clock divider module

 The Q962 is a specific type of clock divider, likely a module within a modular synthesizer system.

 It's designed to take an incoming clock signal and produce a series of divided clock signals, meaning the output clock pulses occur at a slower rate than the input. This is useful for creating rhythmic variations and controlling other modules with different timing relationships. 

manual

Here's how a clock divider like the Q962 might be used:
1. Basic Division:
Connect the incoming clock signal to the input of the Q962.
Each output of the Q962 will provide a clock signal divided by a specific factor (e.g., /2, /4, /8, etc.).
These divided clocks can then be used to trigger other modules, such as sequencers, envelopes, or LFOs, creating different rhythmic patterns. 
2. Creating Rhythmic Complexity:
By using multiple outputs of the clock divider with different division factors, you can create complex rhythmic patterns that evolve over time.
For example, you might use a /2 clock to trigger a kick drum, a /4 clock to trigger a snare, and a /8 clock to trigger a hi-hat, creating a basic drum beat.
You can then experiment with different combinations and offsets to create more intricate rhythms. 

3. Combining with Logic Modules:
Clock dividers can be combined with logic modules (AND, OR, XOR gates) to create even more complex rhythmic variations.
For example, you could use an AND gate to combine the output of a /2 clock and a /3 clock, resulting in a clock pulse that only occurs when both clocks are high, creating a new rhythmic pattern.
4. Timing and Modulation:
Clock dividers can be used to control the timing of other modules, such as LFOs (low-frequency oscillators) or envelopes.
By using a divided clock signal to modulate the rate or amplitude of an LFO, you can create rhythmic variations in the LFO's output.
Similarly, a divided clock can be used to trigger envelope generators, creating percussive sounds with varying attack and decay times. 
5. Performance Techniques:
During live performances, clock dividers can be used to create dynamic changes in the music by switching between different division ratios or combining them in various ways.
This allows for transitions between different rhythmic feels or for creating build-ups and breakdowns in the music. 
Example:
Imagine you have a sequencer that is running at a certain tempo. You can use the Q962 to divide that tempo and then use the divided clocks to trigger other modules. For example: 
/2 (half speed): Could trigger a bassline or a longer melodic phrase.
/4 (quarter speed): Could trigger a percussive element like a tom-tom or a short melodic phrase.
/8 (eighth speed): Could trigger a hi-hat or a subtle rhythmic embellishment.
/16 (sixteenth speed): Could trigger a very fast, subtle rhythmic element.
By combining these different divisions, you can create a complex and evolving rhythmic landscape. You can also use the logic modules to combine the divided clocks in different ways, creating even more intricate patterns. 
In essence, the Q962, and clock dividers in general, are powerful tools for creating rhythmic complexity and dynamic changes in modular synthesizers.

GNC Grain corp

 GNC
07/07/26

.....................
Over the last 5 years, GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC) has experienced highly cyclical results driven by commodity cycles and weather conditions. The company generated strong profits in FY22 and FY23 but has since faced declining earnings and tightening margins, characterized by low Return on Equity (ROE) and compressed profit margins. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Financial Snapshot (FY21 - 1H26)
Historically, GrainCorp has achieved massive highs, but recent crop oversupply and weak grain pricing have heavily impacted revenues. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Metric [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]FY22FY23FY24FY251H26
Revenue$4.26 billion$8.15 billion$6.51 billion$7.31 billion$3.88
NPAT (Underlying)$380 million$250 million$77 million$87 million$33 million
Return on Equity (ROE)28.6%16.4%4.0%2.8%-0.95% (ttm)
Net Debt to Equity0.230.300.236.8%*1.20
*Based on varying company reporting standards (net debt to total debt & equity) [1, 2, 3]
Deeper Breakdown
  • Profitability: Earnings saw a spectacular peak in 2022 (due to ideal east coast Australia weather and massive crop volumes). However, as the commodity cycle normalized, Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) dropped sharply. By the first half of 2026, Net Income plummeted to $4.6 million with a razor-thin profit margin. [1, 2]
  • Debt Levels: The company has maintained a strong balance sheet historically. Long-term debt has hovered generally between $320 million and $350 million. In early 2026, the strategic sale of GrainsConnect Canada (for $150 million CAD) highlighted the company's continuous effort to focus on core operations and manage capital. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
  • ROE & Returns: Following peak ROE levels of 28.6% in FY22, returns steadily deflated alongside commodity prices, ultimately sliding into negative territory in the 2026 trailing twelve months (TTM) as profits dried up. [1]
....................
Over the last 10 years, the historical mean price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for GrainCorp Limited (ASX: GNC) is 15.85, though its annual valuation fluctuates significantly due to agricultural cycles. [1]
Analyze Annual P/E Ratios
GrainCorp's recent fiscal year (ending September 30) multiples highlight a recent surge in its trailing ratio driven by compression in agricultural earnings: [1, 2]
  • 2025: 29.5x to 35.6x (Driven by lower cyclical net income)
  • 2024: 25.3x to 33.4x
  • 2023: 5.4x (Reflected record bumper crop earnings)
  • 2022: 4.9x
  • 2016–2021 Historical Range: Alternated heavily between 9.5x and 22.0x, with occasional negative or disrupted P/E periods caused by severe Australian drought conditions impacting grain volumes. [1, 2, 3]
Evaluate Key Historical Metrics
Review the 10-year trading range benchmarks to assess overall valuation depth: [1]
  • 10-Year Average: 15.85
  • 10-Year Median: 9.97
  • 10-Year Maximum: 50.00 (Excluding outlier quarters)
  • 10-Year Minimum: -10.39 (During loss-making drought periods) [1]
Action Plan for Investors
If you are calculating normalized valuations for ASX agricultural stocks, follow these steps:
  1. Monitor Cyclical Earnings: Do not rely on a single year's P/E. Use the 10-year median (9.97) rather than the current elevated P/E to assess baseline value. [1]
  2. Track the Premium: Compare GNC's current multiple against the wider market using tools like the Market Index GNC Financials Profile to see if it trades above its typical baseline relative to the index. [1]
  3. Review Upcoming Guidance: Check the latest structural changes and upcoming half-year reports on Investing.com AU GNC Profile to see if earnings are forecast to recover. [1]
.................
How to trade this stock


The stock is returning to its long term average price .... about $4. I think it's worth accumulating at or below this price and holding for the long term (10years +) 

GrainCorp Ltd (ASX:GNC) is an agribusiness, but like a miner, it is highly cyclical. To trade or invest in GNC, treat it like an agricultural commodity stock. Its revenue and dividend payouts fluctuate wildly depending on weather patterns, east coast Australian crop volumes, and global grain oversupply. [1, 2]

Trading and evaluating GrainCorp Ltd (ASX:GNC) involves specific agricultural factors: [1]
1. The "Cyclical" Nature
Yes, GrainCorp is one of the ASX's most cyclical stocks, completely dependent on the weather and global agricultural cycles rather than steady consumer demand. [1, 2]
  • Bumper Years: When rainfall is high and east coast crop yields are massive, the company experiences a surge in grain storage, handling, and export volumes, resulting in blockbuster profits and large dividends.
  • Downturns: During droughts or times of global oversupply, export volumes shrink, crushing margins and severely reducing net profit. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
2. Treating It "Like a Miner"
In some ways, the comparison makes sense—but with key differences:
  • Similarities: Like mining companies, GNC's earnings are dictated by global commodity prices (e.g., global grain pricing) and macroeconomic factors. You typically want to buy during the "trough" of the cycle and sell when conditions peak. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Differences: Miners extract a finite, physical resource from the ground. GrainCorp is a supply-chain and processing business (storage, logistics, edible oils, feed supplements). Its "resource" is renewable and weather-dependent. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
3. How to Trade and Value GNC
Because of its cyclicality, applying standard metrics (like a static Price-to-Earnings ratio) can be misleading. Consider these key trading metrics:
  • Crop Volume Guidance: Pay close attention to grain receival and export volume forecasts. [1, 2]
  • Edible Oil and Ag-Energy Margins: GrainCorp has diversified beyond basic grain. Watch its Nutrition and Energy divisions, as strong crush margins can help buffer against poor grain seasons. [1, 2, 3]
  • Dividend Sustainability: Evaluate the trailing and indicated yields, but recognize that dividend payouts fluctuate, and the strongest yields often follow consecutive years of bumper crops.  [1, 2]
  • For income investors, the key insight is that GrainCorp's dividend should be averaged across the cycle. A single bumper year's payout flatters the trailing yield; a drought year would do the opposite. The through-the-cycle dividend is far more modest than the recent peak. The company's weather-derivative and risk-management arrangements smooth some of the volatility, but they cannot eliminate the fundamental dependence on the weather and the crop.  .
  • Valuation Multiples: Investors usually trade GNC by evaluating its Price/Book ratio and its "through-the-cycle" EBITDA, which anchors its long-term baseline value. [1, 2]
..............
Dividends

Ex Div Date Record Date Date Payable Amount (cps) % Franked Type
01-Jul-26 02-Jul-26 16-Jul-26 14c 100% Ordinary
26-Nov-25 27-Nov-25 11-Dec-25 14c 100% Ordinary
26-Nov-25 27-Nov-25 11-Dec-25 10c 100% Special
02-Jul-25         03-Jul-25          17-Jul-25 14c 100% Ordinary
02-Jul-25         03-Jul-25         17-Jul-25         10c 100% Special
27-Nov-24 28-Nov-24 12-Dec-24 14c 100% Ordinary
27-Nov-24 28-Nov-24 12-Dec-24 10c 100% Special
3-Jul-24          4-Jul-24         18-Jul-24         14c 100% Ordinary
3-Jul-24          4-Jul-24         18-Jul-24         10c 100% Special
29-Nov-23 30-Nov-23 14-Dec-23 16c 100% Special
29-Nov-23 30-Nov-23 14-Dec-23 14c 100% Ordinary
05-Jul-23    06-Jul-23        20-Jul-23         14c 100% Ordinary
05-Jul-23   06-Jul-23  20-Jul-23  10c 100% Special
29-Nov-22 30-Nov-22 14-Dec-22 14c 100% Ordinary
29-Nov-22 30-Nov-22 14-Dec-22 16c 100% Special
06-Jul-22  07-Jul-22  21-Jul-22  12c 100% Special
06-Jul-22  07-Jul-22  21-Jul-22  12c 100 % Ordinary
24-Nov-21 25-Nov-21 09-Dec-21 10c 100% Final
07-Jul-21  08-Jul-21  22-Jul-21  8c 100% Interim
25-Nov-20 26-Nov-20 10-Dec-20 7c 100% Final
28-Nov-18 29-Nov-18 13-Dec-18 8c 100% Final
29-Jun-18 02-Jul-18  16-Jul-18  8c 100% Interim
29-Nov-17 30-Nov-17 14-Dec-17 15c 100% Final
30-Jun-17 03-Jul-17  17-Jul-17  15c 100% Interim
29-Nov-16 30-Nov-16 14-Dec-16 3.5c 100% Final
30-Jun-16 01-Jul-16  15-Jul-16  7.5c 100% Interim
27-Nov-15 01-Dec-15 15-Dec-15 2.5c 100% Final
01-Jul-15  03-Jul-15  17-Jul-15  7.5c 100% Interim
28-Nov-14 02-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 5c 100% Final
02-Jul-14  04-Jul-14  18-Jul-14  15c 100% Interim
26-Nov-13 02-Dec-13 16-Dec-13 20c 100% Final
01-Jul-13  05-Jul-13  19-Jul-13  20c 100% Interim
01-Jul-13  05-Jul-13  19-Jul-13  5c 100% Special
27-Nov-12 03-Dec-12 17-Dec-12 20c 100% Final
27-Nov-12 03-Dec-12 17-Dec-12 15c 100% Special
02-Jul-12  06-Jul-12  20-Jul-12  15c 100% Special
02-Jul-12  06-Jul-12  20-Jul-12  15c 100% Interim
01-Dec-11 07-Dec-11 21-Dec-11 20c 100% Special
01-Dec-11 07-Dec-11 21-Dec-11 15c 100% Final
01-Jul-11  07-Jul-11  21-Jul-11  5c 100% Special
01-Jul-11  07-Jul-11  21-Jul-11  15c 100% Interim
01-Dec-10 07-Dec-10 21-Dec-10 5c 100% Special
01-Dec-10 07-Dec-10 21-Dec-10 10c 100% Final
15-Jun-10 21-Jun-10 05-Jul-10  15c 100% Interim
30-Nov-09 04-Dec-09 16-Dec-09 7.27c 100% Final

..........