Friday, 23 May 2025

Yield Curves

 A yield curve is a line graph that plots the interest rates (yields) of bonds with the same credit quality but different maturity dates (e.g., 1-month, 2-year, 10-year). It visually demonstrates how much return investors demand for lending money over varying time periods. 


How It Works
  • The Graph: The horizontal axis X shows time until maturity (from short-term to long-term). The vertical axis Y shows the corresponding yield (interest rate).
  • The Benchmark: Yield curves—most commonly created using government bonds like U.S. Treasuries—are widely used as benchmarks to determine mortgage rates, savings account yields, and corporate borrowing costs. 
The Three Main Shapes
The shape of the yield curve changes based on economic conditions, inflation, and central bank monetary policy: 
  • Normal (Upward-Sloping): Short-term yields are lower than long-term yields. Investors demand a higher return for the added risk and uncertainty of locking their money away for a longer period. This is the most common shape and typically points to an expanding economy. 


  • Inverted (Downward-Sloping): Short-term yields are higher than long-term yields. This rare shape occurs when investors anticipate an economic slowdown or recession, prompting them to lock in long-term rates now before central banks cut interest rates in the future. 

  • Flat:
    Yields are nearly identical across all maturities. This typically represents a transition period in the economy where the curve is shifting from normal to inverted (or vice versa).
The importance of yield curves is that they are a tool for forecasting economic strength and recessions


Steeper yield curves mean that the difference (spread) between short term bonds and long term bonds are greater. 

That's a sign that the market expects interest rates to rise.
This often happens when inflationary pressures are persistent and traders think the Fed will raise rates to combat that inflation.

Saturday, 17 May 2025

Basilisk - wirehead - build notes - part 2

Part 2 of my Wirehead Basilisk build.
This is a bass line synth from Western Australia.
part 1 on my build is here:

I saw a cool video by Mylar the other day on this synth.

back to the build.

I like to align the faceplate with the pcb using the spacers provided.

Audio sockets and power socket next.

This is the rear of the display


align it with the front panel ... I'm keeping the plastic cover n it for now. ... it sits on top of the face plate.

switch & some pots ... just to check the panel alignment


The caps need to sit flat to allow enough room for the LED display.


Almost there.

insert the adruino


final 4 pots
don't insert any IC till after you have tested for shorts ... see the build manual.


Once this is all done plug it in . The synth runs on either USB power or DC 9V 




ACO - Theremin and beyond - Carolina Eyck

 I saw this concert last week and was blown away. 
The Australian Chamber Orchestra is my favourite orchestra



It got me thinking all about the technology which is over100 years old.
It was invented by Léon Theremin (born Lev Sergeyevich Termen), a Russian physicist and inventor in 1920.
It was never meant to be a musical instrument.
Leon was working on proximity sensors for the Soviet government.

The theremin is unique in that it is played without physical contact. It has two metal antennas:
One controls pitch (vertical antenna – right hand).
The other controls volume (horizontal loop – left hand).

The musician moves their hands in the electromagnetic fields surrounding these antennas to control sound.
The human body is acting like a big capacitor sucking energy literally through the air to ground.

It today's world the transmission of energy wirelessly is a obvious application.
You may have wondered how a phone can be charged wirelessly.

Both technologies are based on electromagnetic fields and inductive or capacitive coupling, and both involve the transmission of energy or information without physical contact.


The theremin works by creating electromagnetic fields around its two antennas.
When a player moves their hands near the antennas, it changes the capacitance in the circuit.
This alters the frequency of an oscillator, which is converted into an audible sound.

Wireless charging (like Qi chargers or inductive pads) uses electromagnetic induction to transfer energy between two coils:
A transmitting coil in the charger creates a magnetic field.
A receiving coil in the device picks up that field and converts it into electricity.

Carolina Eyck used a D-Lev theremin at the performance I attended in Wollongong.
She began the performance using a Moog Etherwave Pro theremin but mid way technical issues forced
her to swap to the D-lev.





I had never heard about this model.
It turns out that it's bespoke and the schematics are on the net.


The D-lev was designed by Eric Wallin

Friday, 16 May 2025

Choosing the right coffee Charge temp (& turning point).

Choosing the right coffee charge temperature involves balancing batch size, bean density, and roast level to hit a turning point around 45–90 seconds. 
It's the stored energy in the roaster that kicks things off.
A higher charge (>200C) suits denser beans, 
while lower charges (roughly 160C-180C) prevent scorching of low-altitude beans.
Decaf would call for a noticably larger batch size or lower charge temp.

The average charge temperature for a Hottop roaster typically ranges from 300°F to 375°F (149-190c) as measured by the Bean Temperature (BT) probe. While the manufacturer's automatic default is low (around 167°F or 75°C), experienced users often charge higher for better energy management, often around 350°F

Key Factors for Setting Charge Temperature:
+Bean Density: 
  High-density/high-altitude beans generally require a higher charge temperature
  to penetrate the bean core. 
   Lower density beans are prone to more roast defects (you need to be more gentle with the heat).
+Bean size & shape
   bigger beans take longer to roast.
   round or small beans move differently in the roaster - roasting more evenly and quickly.
+ moisture content
    Beans with a higher moisture content take longer to dry.
+Type of bean processing.
   Natural or honey processed usually have more sugars on the outside, so roast faster or scorch 
   if you are not careful.
   Washed coffees tend to roast more evenly.
 +Batch Size: Larger batches necessitate a higher charge temperature to provide 
  enough energy to the larger mass.
+Roast Level: Light roasts, which need a faster, shorter development time, often benefit 
  from a higher charge. 
  Espresso or darker roasts can start at a slightly lower charge to manage the heat needed
  for a longer roast.
+Roaster Environment: Ensure the machine is properly heat-soaked, usually with
  the environment temperature significantly higher than the drum temperature.
+Turning Point Indicator: The Turning Point (TP) is when the bean temperature 
   rises after being cooled by the charge

TP too fast (<45s): Charge temperature is too high.
TP too slow (>90s): Charge temperature is too low.
TP just right = 60 s (general rule of thumb)

Fine-Tuning Tips:
If your coffee tastes like it has "roastiness" or you observe scorching/tipping, decrease your charge temperature.
If your roast takes too long to dry (before the yellowing stage), increase the charge.
Naturals often perform better at a slightly lower charge to avoid over-roasting the exterior, while washed coffees can handle more heat.

Exhaust temperature
This is very impt as it indicates how much energy you have in the roaster & can be used to soak the beans. It will tell you if you have enough momentium in the roaster.
The Exhaust temp should be higher than the bean temp.
If the exhaust temp if aways higher than the bean temp then you will always have a positive ROR.
Towards the end of the roast, the two temps will meet .
The Exhaust temp is influenced by the drum speed and energy changes.
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HotTop roaster settings
+Optimal Range: 300°F–350°F (149°C–177°C) is commonly cited for a good balance,
   avoiding scorching while ensuring enough energy for the roast.
+Higher Density Beans: Use higher charge temperatures (approx. 375°F or 190°C) to 
  ensure enough energy enters the bean.
+Lower Density/Softer Beans: Use lower charge temperatures (approx. 325°F or 163°C) 
  to avoid scorching.
+Batch Size: For a 250g charge, 350°F is a common starting point. If reducing batch size 
  to 175g, some users increase charge temperatures to 390°F–410°F to maintain heat.
+Roast Style: Espresso roasts often use higher charge temperatures for more heat, 
  while lighter filter roasts might use slightly lower, faster-acting profiles



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Wednesday, 14 May 2025

FE-AR - La Pepina

The FE-AR lever coffee machine is a Italian espresso machine also known as the La Peppina.
It's an open boiler design so can't froth milk.

It was designed by Felice Arosio (the "FE-AR" name comes from his initials) and was produced in Milan between the late 1950s till the mid-1980s. It uses a spring-piston lever mechanism to generate brewing pressure.

What I love about this machine is it's minimalist engineering.
It has remarkably few parts and is relatively easy to disassemble and maintain compared with many vintage machines.
It's iconic design has increased it's collector appeal.
Original examples, especially the red and cream enamel versions, are highly sought after by lever-machine enthusiasts.


Among lever enthusiasts, the La Peppina has a reputation for producing sweet, smooth espresso with a distinctive spring-lever extraction profile. Because the pressure naturally declines during the shot, it can be quite forgiving and produce rich body and crema when paired with a good grinder. Community discussions often compare it with other classic Italian lever machines such as the Faemina and Arrarex Caravel.


If you enjoy restoring classic equipment and appreciate the history of espresso machines, it's one of the most iconic domestic lever machines ever made.



Over the decades it's design evolved.
Changes were made to the boiler and base shape, the lever assembly & the heating element. 





A Rounded more bulbous boiler can usually be found on one of the earlier 1960–1965 variants.



More angular boiler and redesigned base/grid → generally the later v3.x machines from the 1970s onward.


700 W heating element → often 1970s v3.0 models.
950–1100 W rating → typically later 1970s versions.

Tuesday, 13 May 2025

Cortados/Gibraltar's/Piccolos - Glass and cup sizes

 In the coffee world glass sizes and cups vary alot, esp in different parts of the world.

These are some of the most common:

Piccolo

A piccolo glass typically holds 3-4 ounces (85-114 ml) of liquid. This small size is designed to hold a single shot of espresso with a small amount of steamed and stretched milk, often with a light layer of microfoam on top. It is smaller than other common coffee sizes like lattes or flat whites. 

To the left is a pic of a Duralex Picardie 3oz/90ml Glass.
The wide rim to helps making latte art, but the duralex glass isn't good at holding in heat. Industrial looking ... crystal its not! But I like that.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Piccolo Latte: The term "piccolo" itself means "small" in Italian, and a piccolo latte is a small, espresso-based drink. 
Size: The 3-4 ounce (85-114ml) size is standard for piccolos. 
Ingredients: A piccolo latte consists of a single shot of espresso and steamed milk. 
Texture: It has a light layer of microfoam on top, giving it a velvety texture. 

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Cortado

A cortado glass is typically around 4.5 ounces (133ml) in size. 
The example below is Vero cortado glass 4.25oz/125ml

Some variations exist, with some serving it in slightly smaller 4 oz (120ml) glasses, especially for competitions or to highlight the sweetness of the coffee.

The cortado is larger in volume than a macchiato, and smaller than a cappuccino. The VERO glass has exaggerated facets for a modern appearance and comfortable hold.

 The key characteristic is that it's a small glass, designed to hold a 1:1 ratio of espresso to steamed milk. 


This is a Libbey/Onis LB15248 Gibraltar - Rocks.
Its 133ml. 
This company has been around since 1818.
I adore this cup. It looks classy.
Lovely thick base ... great heat retention.








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Gibraltar
A Gibraltar glass, specifically a Libbey Gibraltar Rocks Glass, is typically around 8-10 ounces (237-296ml). 
The one I like the most is mid-way in size ... the Libbey Onis Gibraltar Tall rocks LB15231. 
Its 266ml


These glasses are designed with a short, wide shape, making them suitable for serving spirits neat or on the rocks, as well as classic cocktails.  Great thermal properties. thick base.

Here's a more detailed breakdown:
Capacity:
The most common size is 8 ounces (237ml), but they can also be found in 7 ounces (207ml) and 10 ounces (296ml). 
Dimensions:
While the exact dimensions can vary slightly between manufacturers, they are generally around 9cm (3.5 inches) in height and 8.6cm (3.4 inches) in diameter. 
Shape:
They are characterized by their short, wide shape, resembling a tumbler. 

---------------------------------

Some of my other glasses :
A standard 60ml/2oz espresso cup. 
lovely mouth feel. Thick porcelain.
Excellent heat retention.

Too small for latte art.








Almost 90ml/3oz
Piccolo size.

The hardest one for latte art.







This is 145ml.. just shy of 5oz
Slightly larger than Cortado size 
Narrow rim , so its harder to pour latte art.









235ml... just shy of 8oz
Gibraltar size... almost.











This is a Decent Espresso Tipsy ceramic cup.
I love their asymmetry. 
Designed so you can smell your coffee while you taste.
They come in 3 sizes:
Little Tipsy: 90ml/3oz
Tipsy Latte : 180ml/6oz
More Tipsy Latte : 250ml/8.5oz

The last two cups are aimed at milk based drinks. Makes latte art easier and the thin walls (walls are heat sinks) allow you to get away with using cooler (and sweeter) milk .


This is a Sensory Asymmetry Cup from Origami
The cup's rim thickness changes the way you feel the flavor depending on where you sip the coffee. 

Flavor and acidity are more easily felt at the thin rim, while body and texture come through more clearly when you drink from the thicker rim.





This is another version of a cup with an asymmetrical lip.
Suzhi Cerc.  its 75ml (piccolo size)













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Coffee index. Click here :



Saturday, 10 May 2025

Basilisk - wirehead - build notes

These are my build notes for the Basilisk baseline synthesizer.
Wirehead come from Western Australia.
Here is the official website:

Links


It's described as analog hybrid. It has dual digital oscillators with a 12dB MS20 style filter (with overdrive).
There is a built in 1-16 step generative synthesizer. 



I purchased the kit from Tindie


A basilisk is a legendary reptile, often depicted as a serpent or serpent-like creature, 
known for its deadly gaze or venom. In European folklore, the basilisk is a fearsome beast, 
sometimes described as a "serpent king" or a "little king". 
It's also associated with the ability to kill or petrify with a glance. The name "basilisk" comes from 
the Greek word for "little king". 








The kit can with all components ... looks like a easy build.




IC sockets first



resistors & diodes, caps



Next .. the resistor array
Some info about arrays:

470ohms & 100k resistor array 

These have polarity. look for the white dot.


A 471J resistor has a resistance value of 470 ohms with a tolerance of ±5%. The letter "J" in the designation indicates a 5% tolerance. This means the actual resistance can vary from 470 ohms by up to 5%, resulting in a range of 446.5 ohms to 493.5 ohms. 

lm336 voltage regulator


to be continued....


Friday, 9 May 2025

TLS - telstra

 TLS
21-7-26


...................
Over the past five years, ASX:TLS (Telstra Group) has experienced steady revenue and profit growth, an efficient reduction in capital intensity, strong and improving Return on Equity (ROE), and stable debt levels as part of a broader strategy to boost capital returns for shareholders. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Profit & Revenue
Telstra has maintained a strong core telecom infrastructure, yielding consistent top-line figures and improved underlying profitability: [1, 2, 3]
  • Revenue: Has hovered around the $22.5B} to $23.1B AUD range annually.
  • Net Profit After Tax (NPAT): Showed positive momentum, rising from roughly 1.68B AUD in 2022 to reach $2.17B AUD in FY2025 and posting a further 8.1% increase in underlying NPAT for 1H FY2026.
  • Gross Profit: Consistently tracks near $11.3B to $14.6B AUD depending on reported expenses and amortization models. [1, 2, 3, 4, 7]
Debt Profile
Telstra maintains a balanced, defensive balance sheet while heavily investing in networks and 5G: [1, 2, 3]
  • Long-term Debt: Generally hovers between $12.5B and $13B AUD.
  • Debt to Equity: Sits around 119%, which is standard for asset-heavy telecom infrastructure giants but is carefully managed with disciplined cost reductions and optimized capital expenditure. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Return on Equity (ROE) & Returns
ROE has been on an upward trajectory, reflecting stronger capital execution and share buybacks: []
  • ROE Trends: Reached a 5-year peak of \(15.1\%\) at the end of FY2025 and continued to expand to over \(16\%\). This is above Telstra's historical 10-year median of \(13.6\%\). [1, 2]
  • Capital Returns: Management has consistently delivered reliable dividends (yielding around \(4.0\% - 4.2\%\)) and actively executed massive on-market share buy-backs, including a \(\$1.25\text{B}\) AUD buy-back program. [1, 2, 3]
Share Price Performance
Over the last 5 years, TLS shares have provided a total return of approximately \(32.8\%\). The stock has historically been treated as a defensive income provider rather than a high-growth asset. [1, 2, 3, 5]
.......................
As of July 2026, Telstra Group Limited (ASX:TLS) trades at a trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio of approximately 24.4x to 24.9x, which sits roughly 10% above its 10-year median P/E ratio of 22.51. [1, 2, 3]
Over the last 10 years, Telstra's valuation multiple has experienced distinct phases: a low-multiple utility period (2016–2018), a sharp re-rating due to compressed earnings during the NBN rollout transition, and a sustained higher-multiple period (2021–2026) as mobile pricing power improved.
10-Year Historical P/E Ratio Data
The tracking table below presents the annual calendar year-end P/E ratios for Telstra on Companies Market Cap, supplemented by Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) fiscal data from GuruFocus and Finbox: [1, 2, 3]
YearAverage / Year-End P/E RatioValuation Context & Drivers
2026 (Current)24.5x – 24.9xStabilised mobile infrastructure monetization; pricing indexation.
202526.8xPeaked mid-year near 28.5x on high investor demand for defensive yield.
202425.2xRetreated to a fiscal low of 22.9x before rebounding on clear mobile growth.
202324.4xConsolidated valuation multiple as underlying core earnings expanded.
202223.7xSignificant re-rating following corporate restructuring into separate "Infraco" units.
202118.1xMultiple expanded as the NBN headwind ceased eating into year-on-year profits.
202016.9xCOVID-19 defensive premium supported the multiple despite broader market volatility.
201916.7xSpike in the statistical P/E ratio due to a massive, temporary drop in net profit.
20186.28xMulti-year low. Caused by severe earnings pressure from NBN migration and dividend cuts.
20178.75xDe-rating accelerated as the financial impact of the NBN rollout became clear.
20167.30xValued as a low-growth legacy utility while earnings peaked right before the NBN impact.
3 Key Trends Driving the 10-Year Multiples
If you are evaluating Telstra's structural changes over this past decade, consider these core fundamental phases:
  • The NBN Earnings Compression (2016–2019): Historically, TLS traded at much lower optical P/E ratios (often sub-10x). This occurred because its structural earnings were artificially high from legacy wholesale copper monopolies. When the National Broadband Network (NBN) forced a shift to lower-margin retail reselling, earnings plummeted faster than the stock price, mathematically driving the P/E multiple higher by 2019. [1, 2, 3]
  • Infrastructure Carve-out & Premium (2021–2025): Post-2020, Telstra structurally split its business into T22/T25 segments (Amplitel, InfraCo). Investors began valuing Telstra's world-class physical infrastructure similarly to infrastructure funds, assigning it a much more aggressive structural multiple (mid-20s) compared to its historical telco average. [1]
  • Mobile Market Rationalization (Recent Years): The elevated P/E ratio of the mid-2020s reflects a more rational Australian mobile market where Tier-1 carriers regularly lift postpaid plan prices inline with CPI, providing a predictable defensive earnings stream that command premium equity multiples. [1, 2, 3]
...................
Over the last 10 years, Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) has experienced an ROIC that generally hovered near or slightly below its estimated WACC through the NBN-transition and restructuring lows (dipping to roughly 4.2% around 2021), before recovering toward an ROIC of 6.6% to 8.8% against a relatively steady WACC averaging roughly 5.3% to 7.0%. [1, 2, 3, 4]
ROIC Trends Over the Decade
  • Early-to-Mid Period (2016–2021): Telstra's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) compressed significantly due to NBN multi-technology mix headwinds and margin pressures, dropping to a low of about 4.2% in FY21. [1]
  • Recent Recovery (2022–2026): As the NBN rollout headwinds stabilized and the T22/T25 strategy took effect, ROIC climbed steadily, reaching roughly 6.6% to 9.06% in recent trailing data. [1, 2, 3]
WACC Trends Over the Decade
  • Cost of Capital: Telstra’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) has tracked tightly in a range between 5.3% and 7.7% over the decade, supported by a conservative balance sheet and a relatively low debt-to-equity weighting. [1, 2]
  • 10-Year Median: The 10-year median WACC sits around 5.3%–5.5% depending on shifting risk-free rates and market risk premiums, while current estimates hover around 5.5% to 7.7%. [, 2]
Value Creation Dynamics
  • Value Destruction Phase: During the peak earnings compression years (roughly 2018–2021), Telstra's ROIC dropped below its WACC, implying a temporary destruction of economic value on incremental capital. [1]
  • Value Neutral/Creation Phase: With ROIC recovering to the 7%–9% range and WACC staying near 5.5%–7%, Telstra has returned to generating a modest economic spread (ROIC exceeding WACC) in recent periods. [1, 2, 4]
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