Thursday, 26 December 2024

Fiorenzato-Pietro hand grinder

The Pietro hand grinder, made by the Italian company Fiorenzato, is a premium manual grinder featuring 58mm vertical flat burrs, designed for single dosing to produce a clean and subtle cup of coffee. 

It's known for its innovative design, including a unique ergonomic and retractable lever system and magnetic dosing chamber, which allows for precision, zero retention, and ease of cleaning. 
The grinder is available with 2 different burr sets for multipurpose or filter.

 
Key Features
Vertical Flat Burrs:
The Pietro is unique as the only hand grinder with vertical 58mm flat burrs, a design that promotes consistent performance and precise extraction. 

Zero Retention:
The design ensures that no coffee grounds are retained in the grinder, leading to a cleaner cup and more efficient use of beans. 

Ergonomic Design:

It features an innovative, ergonomic design with a retractable lever for comfortable and precise use. 

Magnetic Dosing Chamber:
A grounds container with strong magnetic buttons collects the coffee, making it easy to detach and use. 

Premium Build Quality:
Manufactured in Venice, Italy, the grinder is built with premium materials and a robust design. 

Specialized Burr Sets:
You can choose between the "MultiPurpose" burrs for a full range of brewing, or the "ProBrew" burrs, optimized for filter extractions. 




Benefits
Exceptional Clarity:
Produces a noticeably cleaner and more subtle cup of coffee, allowing for subtle tasting notes to become more apparent. 
Precision Grinding:
The vertical flat burr geometry provides perfect extraction for a superior coffee experience. 
Ease of Cleaning:
The grinder is designed to be easy to take apart, clean, and set up. 










Stylish and High-Quality:
Its aesthetic and craftsmanship make it a beautiful and durable addition to a countertop. 


Who is it for?
The Pietro is designed for discerning coffee enthusiasts who are looking for a high-performance, specialized hand grinder for single-dosing, and who appreciate a blend of innovative engineering and premium aesthetics. 









3D printed stand and funnel















The Pietro hand grinder has approximately 15 microns of burr distance adjustment per click of its numbered dial. This adjustment is consistent across different burr sets, including the standard M-Modal and the Pro Brewing burrs, providing users with precise control over their grind size for espresso, filter coffee, and other brew methods.

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Key Details
15 Microns per Click:
Each click on the Pietro's intuitive adjustment dial corresponds to a 15-micron change in the distance between the burrs. 
Burr Distance:
This micron value represents the actual physical change in the setting, ensuring a precise and repeatable adjustment for your grind. 
Intuitive Dial:
The numbered dial allows for easy and accurate identification of grind levels for various brewing methods, from espresso to filter coffee. 

Versatile Burr Sets:
This 15-micron increment holds true for both the standard M-Modal burrs and the Pro Brewing burrs (designed with Lance Hedrick), offering consistent precision regardless of your chosen burr set. 

There is a hack for making this stepless however I haven't felt the need to do this so far.

CDA - Codan

 CDA Codan
05 july 2026

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ASX:CDA (Codan Limited) has experienced strong operational growth over the last 5 years, achieving record-breaking earnings and a share price rally. Net profit reached $103.5 million in FY25 and hit $71.2 million in H1 FY26 alone, while maintaining low debt and a strong Return on Equity (ROE) exceeding 24%. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]
5-Year Financial & Operational Breakdown
  • Profitability: Codan has sustained impressive margins, with Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) rising consistently. The company achieved an NPAT of $103.5 million in FY25 (a 27% year-on-year increase) and upgraded its full-year guidance for FY26 on the back of bullish sales in its Communications and Metal Detection units. [1, 2, 3]


  • Debt Levels: The balance sheet remains highly conservative. By the end of FY25, net debt had been significantly reduced to $78.3 million, and its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio sat comfortably at 0.4 times, providing ample room for strategic acquisitions. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Codan has been a highly capital-efficient business. The company maintains an ROE of 24.35%, comfortably beating historical levels as revenue scaling drives bottom-line growth. [1, 2, 3]

  • Share Price Performance: The stock has rallied significantly, climbing from under $10 over the earlier part of the 5-year cycle to reach record all-time highs exceeding $45 by mid-2026. [1, 2, 3]

Key Catalysts
  • Minelab (Metal Detection): Sustained demand driven by favorable global gold prices and successful new product releases.
  • Communications: Tactical acquisitions (such as Kagwerks and Adaptive Dynamics) have expanded the company’s footprint in defense and technology, leading to an increasing and secure order book. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
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PE ratios

The historical Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for Codan Limited (ASX: CDA) has fluctuated significantly over the last 10 years, moving from single digits up to its current premium multiple of 62.4x to 62.9x in July 2026. The stock's 10-year historical average P/E sits at roughly 20.10. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Analyze the 10-Year Historical P/E Ratios
The table below breaks down the annual P/E ratios for Codan Limited from 2016 through mid-2026 based on year-end financial reporting. [1, 2]
Year [1, 2, 3, 4]Approximate P/E RatioKey Driver / Market Phase
2026 (Current)62.4x - 62.9xMassive premium pricing driven by a 55% surge in net income
202535.3x - 37.1xRising demand for communications tech and metal detection gear
202426.8x - 27.0xRecovery in core tech divisions and improved profit margins
202321.3x - 21.5xStabilizing period after post-COVID supply chain and demand shocks
202211.8x - 12.5xSharp multiple contraction following broader tech selloff
202136.0xPeak pandemic demand for Minelab detectors and gold-mining tools
202022.0xSteady growth as digital communications segments expanded
201917.5xModerate valuation matching consistent mid-teen earnings growth
201815.1xTracking close to long-term historical median levels
201718.4xEarly phases of international tactical communications scaling
20169.0xCyclical low with ultra-cheap multiples relative to earnings

Evaluate Essential Valuation Metrics
To get a full look at the company's valuation cycle, look closely at these long-term parameters: [1, 2]
  • 10-Year Average: 20.10
  • 10-Year Median: 16.86
  • 10-Year Minimum: 9.52 (during the 2016 cycle)
  • 10-Year Maximum: 62.92 (reached in current 2026 trading)
  • Forward P/E Multiple: 43.5x - 43.9x (pricing in projected earnings growth) [1, 2, 3, 4]
Review Crucial Growth Drivers
  • Multiple Expansion: The dramatic jump from ~27x in 2024 to over 62x in 2026 is due to the stock price running ahead of near-term earnings. Investors are paying a premium because first-half 2026 net income jumped 55% to AU$71.2m. [, 2, 3]
  • Sector Contrast: At ~62x earnings, Codan trades significantly higher than the median ASX market average (where roughly half of listed companies sit below a 22x P/E). However, it remains closely aligned with its direct peer average in high-growth electronics. [1, 2, 3]
You can cross-reference changing consensus valuations through the Morningstar ASX CDA Profile
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dividends
Not an income stock !



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Thursday, 19 December 2024

ORG - Origin

 ORG - Origin Energy


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Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) trades at roughly $10.86 to $12.01, maintaining a strong position as a diversified utility and integrated energy play. While softer HY26 profits impacted short-term returns, the stock remains a favorite for its defensive utility cash flows and 100% franked ~5.5% dividend yield.
Key Investment Highlights
  • Integrated Advantage: Unlike pure retailers, Origin benefits from upstream oil and gas assets. Its 27.5% stake in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) provides strong, natural cash flows that act as a buffer against volatile retail margins.
  • Energy Transition Exposure: Origin is actively expanding into large-scale battery storage, renewables, and digital platforms like its stake in Octopus Energy. 
  • Takeover Rebound: Having successfully fended off a massive $20 billion private equity takeover in 2023, the stock has since surged past that rejected offer price, validating its standalone value for long-term investors. 

Recent Performance & Challenges
  • HY26 Results: The company reported an underlying profit of $593 million, down from the prior corresponding period, primarily driven by natural declines in gas fields and lower earnings contributions from UK-based Octopus Energy. 
  • Resilient Dividends: Despite the profit drop, management signaled confidence by affirming a fully franked interim dividend of 30 cents per share. 
  • Market Outlook: Analysts assign the stock a consensus "Hold" to moderate "Buy" rating, citing downside protection via diversified earnings but noting near-term execution risks in their costly renewable buildouts. 
Earnings vs ROE


Fairly earnings consistent except for 2021

Energy's earnings dropped significantly in FY2021, driven primarily by lower wholesale electricity and commodity prices, prolonged COVID-19 pandemic impacts reducing energy demand, and massive non-cash asset impairments (write-downs) within its Energy Markets division. 

Revenue, etc


The Net profit history is a bit worrying. What are these abnormals?

Origin Energy’s (ASX: ORG) statutory net profit history appears erratic because it is heavily distorted by one-off, non-cash accounting adjustments (abnormals), shifting commodity prices, and legacy contracts. To understand the true health of the business, investors typically focus on its Underlying Profit rather than statutory profit. 

The main reasons Origin's statutory results swing wildly include:
  • Non-Cash Asset Impairments & Fair Value Changes: Statutory profit includes large non-cash mark-to-market adjustments on financial instruments (like commodity and foreign exchange hedges). If global oil or gas prices crash or surge, Origin must revalue its contracts, which creates massive paper gains or losses that don't affect actual cash flow. 
  • LNG Market Exposure: A massive portion of Origin's earnings comes from its stake in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG). Revenue here fluctuates directly with global spot prices for liquified natural gas and oil, and lags in contract pricing can cause dramatic bottom-line shifts.
  • Energy Markets & Octopus Energy: Origin is a retailer in the highly volatile National Electricity Market and holds a majority stake in UK-based Octopus Energy. Regulatory changes, shifting weather patterns, and wholesale costs hit profit margins inconsistently. 
  • Changes in Tax Legislation: Statutory profits are often shifted by one-off tax adjustments. For instance, in 2025, a shift in APLNG dividends from partially to fully franked created an accounting jump in profit that didn’t reflect operational growth
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EPS --- was negative in 2021,22

2026 0.59
2025 0.86
2024 0.81
2023 0.61
2022 -0.81
2021 -1.30

P/E ratios
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
18.52 12.50 13.39 13.72 - -


A robust and reliable EPS is typically characterized by the following factors:
  • Consistent Upward Trajectory: Rather than relying on a single quarter's windfall, a healthy EPS shows steady, accelerating growth over 3 to 5 years. 
  • Matched Revenue Growth: The EPS should be driven by real business growth (increased sales and improved operational margins), not just artificially inflated by buying back company stock. 
  • Strong Profit Margins: High net income should align with high cash flow, ensuring the company's earnings aren't tied up in unpaid bills or uncollected revenue.
  • Low Dilution: A "healthy" company rarely dilutes its shareholders by issuing a massive amount of new shares, which divides the profit pie into smaller slices and forces the EPS down. 
How to Evaluate EPS in Context
Because share prices differ wildly across companies, the absolute value of an EPS tells only part of the story. To determine if an EPS is actually "good" for a particular stock, use these three metrics: 
  • P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings Ratio): This compares the company's share price to its EPS. A high P/E means investors expect high future EPS growth, while a lower P/E might indicate a value stock. 
  • Industry Benchmarks: Compare a company's EPS growth to its direct competitors. Tech companies generally have different EPS expectations compared to utilities or retail companies. 
  • Diluted vs. Basic EPS: Always look at the Diluted EPS. This conservative figure accounts for all stock options and convertible securities that could potentially hit the market, giving a more accurate picture of your true earnings slice
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Debt / Equity
The higher the D/E ratio, the more a company relies on debt to sustain itself
Of note, there is no “ideal” D/E ratio, though investors generally like it to be below about 2.


Debt / Equity Ratio
2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
0.49  0.49  0.36  0.37  0.35  0.57

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG) has a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 48.5%, or 0.50x
This is quite low :-)
Key balance sheet highlights include:
  • Total Debt: AU$4.72 billion
  • Total Equity: AU$9.7 billion
  • Cash & Equivalents: AU$729 million
  • Net Debt: AU$3.99 billion
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