Roast 11 - cafemasy - Guatamala Antiguia & Ethiopia Limu

 Some roasting for a Guatamala Antiguia bean.

I'm using the Cafe Masy sample roaster

This is a air roaster

I'm slowly getting to know this roaster.

The temps displayed are not the internal bean temp

but still useful 

Guatemala Antigua coffee is a world-renowned, high-altitude Arabica (Bourbon, Caturra, Catuai) grown in mineral-rich volcanic soil between three volcanoes. 

It is characterized by a full body, velvety texture, and distinct flavor notes of chocolate, caramel, spices, and citrus.

Often classified as Strictly Hard Bean (SHB), this premium, shade-grown coffee is ideal for medium to dark roasts, making it excellent for espresso and pour-over.

Altitude: 4,600 – 5,600+ feet (1,400 - 1,700+ meters), classifying it as Strictly Hard Bean (SHB).

flavor Profile: Complex and rich, featuring chocolate, spices, caramel, and a refined citrus or floral acidity.

Growing Conditions: Volcanic soil, high altitude, and a distinct, dry climate, which helps produce consistent, high-quality cherries.

Roast Profile: Best suited for medium to dark roasts, which highlight its chocolate and smokey, spicy notes.

- Guatemala

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Roast 11a - Guatemala Antigua coffee

I roasted in 3 stages

1. 197C for 3.5 mins

2. 202C for 6.5 mins

3. 227C for 2 min

The total roast time (drop) = 12 min

Preheat @195C for 2 mins

Start: 100g

end : 87.1g 

water loss = 12.9g.  thus medium roast

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Roast 11b - Guatemala Antigua coffee

I roasted in 4 stages

1. 197C for 3.5 mins

2. 202C for 4 mins

3. 210C for 1.5 mins

4. 227C for 1.5 min

The total roast time (drop) = 10.30 min

Preheat @195C for 2 mins

Start: 100g

end : 89.5g 

water loss = 10.5 %  thus light-medium roast

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Ethiopia Limu is a premium, high-grown washed Arabica coffee from southwestern Ethiopia, widely regarded for its balanced, winey, and fruity profile. It features bright, citrusy acidity, floral overtones, and a smooth, full body. Often featuring notes of berry or chocolate, Limu coffee is highly consistent, making it excellent for single-origin espresso or pour-over. 

Key Characteristics of Limu Coffee

Flavor Profile: Typically presents a complex mix of fruit (berry, apricot), spice, and floral notes with a pleasant, sweet acidity.

Processing: Primarily wet-processed (washed), which results in a cleaner, brighter cup compared to natural-processed Ethiopian coffees.

Growing Region: Grown in the Western/Southern part of Ethiopia at high altitudes (1,500–1,800+ meters above sea level).

Body & Roast: Known for a balanced, full body that stands up well to medium or light roasting.

Limu is often compared to neighboring Yirgacheffe and Sidamo coffees but is distinguished by a slightly fuller, more robust body

ROR rate of rise - intro

Coffee roasting is about exposing green coffee beans to an increasing temperature for a specific amount of time.

The graphical representation of the beam temperature at any given time during the roast is what we call a roasting profile.

Most roasting profiles look very similar, ... sometimes even identical.

This is a consequence of how all green coffee beans behave during a roast.

As soon as we drop green coffee beans inside of our roaster's drum, which is set to a preset temperature, we notice the temperature drops drastically as the beans absorb heat.

After this, the beans will start reaching an equilibrium represented by a steadily growing temperature.

During this  period we usually raise the gas & decrease airflow

After the first crack the beans will start radiating their own heat. So the airflow should be maxed out and the gas set to a minimum.

This is normal behavior and there is little we could do to change it.

The only thing we can control is a profile slope.

The slope represents the roast speed and is expressed in degrees per min. 

It is widely known as the Rate of Rise. 

A steep slope as a consequence of a high Rate Of Rise.

This is known to grant bright acidity to the beans.

Medium slope triggers sweetness, Aroma and fragrance.

A low slope is characterized by chocolate and nutty flavor notes .

Sometimes the differences on a roasting profile are so small they are hard to see or they overlap

with each other. 

For this reason there isn't a specific curve for the Rate of Rise.

It is expressed in degrees per minute.

During the beginning of the roast the ROR line usually disappears indicating the values are

negative or the temperature is lowering instead of rising.

After the Turning Point the rate of race becomes visible in the chart.

The normal tendency of the rate of rice is to be high at the beginning of the roast

and get lower as the roast progresses.

As a rule of thumb... a rate of rice lower than 10 is slow .

Between 10 and 15, its medium.

About 15 is a high rate of rise.

DRYING PHASE Targets

Start with a high ROR during the drying phase.... average of 15 or 16/min.

The aim is to dry the beans efficiently. Be cautious, don't go too fast as too much heat can scorch the bean surface and not dry the inside of the bean completely.

The ROR will commonly get into the mid 20's as it approaches the turning point.

It often peaks at the TP, (24-25/min) then starts to drop till it reaches dry-end.

I try to get to a ROR of about 15 at dry-end.

MAILLARD Targets

I like to start this phase at around 15/min and aim to drop it around to 5/min at 1st crack.

Aim for a ROR-level around 10°C per minute in the middle Maillard phase of the roast and around 5°C/min from when First Crack starts.

The ROR slope should get less steep during this phase.

DEVELOPMENT PHASE 

It is common to aim for a lower ROR at First Crack and during the development phase. 

Plan for the Exothermic Shift after yellowing (~160°C).

Remember that beans release their own heat. Reduce burner settings early to avoid ROR spikes.

Keeping a close eye on the rate of rise is important because it doesn't only

measure the quality of the rocks. It also measures your consistency and dexterity

as a roaster.

A smooth descending line indicates an uneventful roast and skillful roaster.

A choppy line indicates a dirty or maybe a defective temperature sensor, heat leakage or an

insecure operator.

Sudden changes in rate of Rise going upwards are called "flicks" and going downwards "crashes"

Flicks may result in Burnt, scorched, Rubbery and Toast notes while 

Crashes may cause flat & dull notes .

Keep in mind: ambient humidity, green bean density, and roaster type (drum vs. fluid bed) all influence how ROR behaves. Eg: air roasters generally don't have a turning point.

impact of inflation over time

 The impact of 3% inflation over 30 years

At a 3% annual inflation rate over 30 years, $50,000 will be affected in the following ways:

Future Cost: You would need $121,363 in 30 years to buy what $50,000 buys today.

Purchasing Power: A $50,000 cash sum in 30 years will only have the buying power of $20,599 in today's dollars

After 50 years with a 3% annual inflation rate, $50,000 will be equivalent to approximately $219,195.30 in future value.

At a 4% annual inflation rate, $50,000 will lose a significant portion of its purchasing power over 50 years.

Equivalent Purchasing Power: To buy the same amount of goods in 50 years, you would need $355,567

At a steady 5% annual inflation rate, an initial amount of $50,000 would grow to approximately $573,369.99 after 50 years

The La Marzocco Linea — a short visual + historical overview

 The La Marzocco Linea is one of the most influential espresso machine designs ever made—especially in specialty coffee. Its history is tied closely to the evolution of modern café culture and espresso technology.

🏛️ Origins: built on decades of innovation (1927–1980s)

Before the Linea existed, La Marzocco (founded in Florence in 1927) had already shaped espresso machine design:

+ 1939: patented the horizontal boiler, which allowed baristas to work face-to-face with customers—still standard today.

+ 1970: introduced the GS (Gruppo Saturo) system with dual boilers and saturated group heads, dramatically improving temperature stability and shot consistency.

These technologies became the technical foundation for the Linea.

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🚀 1990: The birth of the Linea

+ Around 1990, Piero Bambi designed the Linea (later called the Linea Classic).

+ It was built to be:

    = Simple to service (technician-friendly)

    = Extremely durable

    = Thermally stable thanks to dual boilers

👉 This combination made it ideal for busy cafés—especially as specialty coffee began to grow globally.

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☕ 1990s–2000s: global café standard

+ The Linea quickly became a workhorse machine in coffee shops worldwide.

+ It was widely used by chains and specialty cafés (including early Starbucks locations).

By the mid-1990s:

+ Thousands of units were produced

+ It became the machine that defined the La Marzocco brand identity

Why it mattered:

+ Reliable under heavy use

+ Consistent shot quality

+ Straightforward mechanical design (easy repairs)

This is why you still see 20–30-year-old Lineas running today.

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🔧 Evolution of the Linea platform

The original design stayed remarkably consistent, but it evolved into several key models:

1. Linea Classic (1990s–present)

+ The original design, still produced today

+ Minimal electronics, very robust

+ Considered a “lifetime” café machine

2. Linea PB (2013)

+ Named after Piero Bambi

+ He Added:

           + Digital controls

           + Brew volume programming

           + Modernized internals

3. Linea Mini (2015)

   This  is a home version of the commercial Linea

   It Features:

         + A Dual boiler system

         + Same design language in a smaller footprint

4. Linea Micra (2022)

   + Even smaller, more accessible home machine

   + App connectivity and compact design

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🌍 So Why the Linea is so important? 

The Linea isn’t just another espresso machine—it helped define modern espresso culture:

+ Standardized café workflow (horizontal layout + multiple group heads)

+ Set expectations for consistency in specialty coffee

+ Became the default machine for high-end cafés for decades

+ Known for longevity—many units last decades with maintenance

In short, it’s often compared to something like a “Land Cruiser” of espresso machines: not flashy, but incredibly dependable.

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🧠 Bottom line

The La Marzocco Linea, introduced in 1990, took decades of Italian espresso engineering and distilled it into a simple, durable, and precise machine. Its success wasn’t about radical new features—it was about getting everything right.

That’s why:

+ It’s still in production

+ Still widely used

+ And still considered a benchmark in coffee

Franking credits Vs CGT - calculating

This is a example:

In Australia, if a company pays a $1000 dividend, fully franked, what is the franking credit , assuming its 100% fully franked?

For an Australian dividend that is 100% fully franked, the franking credit represents the company tax already paid on the underlying profit.

Australia’s standard company tax rate is usually either:

• 30% (most large companies), or
• 25% (base rate entities / many small companies)

The formula is:

$$\text{Franking Credit} = \text{Cash Dividend} \times \frac{\text{Company Tax Rate}}{1 - \text{Company Tax Rate}}$$

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In May 2026 the federal govt changed the rules regarding CGT

 This has made franking credits even more useful.

Lets compare two forms of income : a $1000 capital gain vs a fully franked $1000 dividend

Capital Gain

(shares held for 5 years)

+ initial investment :$1000 

+ Value after 5 years: $2000. Thus a gain of $1000

+ inflation adjustment  (5%pa) : cost base increases to $1276

+ Taxable gain : $724 (2K - 1276)

Tax @ 39% : $282 ($724 x 39%)

Final income after tax = $718

Fully Franked Dividend

+ dividend : $1000

+ attached franking credits (FC) = $429

+ grossed income = 1429 (1k + 429)

+ Tax @ 39% = $557 ($1429 x 39%)

+ final tax (initial tax - FC) = $128 (557 - 429)

Final income after tax = $872 (1000 - 128)

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Note that if inflation was 3% (not 5%), then the cost base would be less @ $1,159.27

and the taxable gain even more.

+ Taxable gain : $840.73 (2K - 1159.27)

Tax @ 39% : $327.88 ($840 x 39%)

Final income after tax = $672.12

The new CGT indexed system is more favourable in higher inflation enviroments.

NST Balance sheet - example

This is the Balance Sheet using real data for the Gold Miner, Northern Star. 

ASX : NST

07/07/2026

Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST) is a pure-play gold producer. The company explores for, mines, and processes gold, producing and selling it on the global market as refined bullion. [1, 2, 3]

This is the share price vs the gold price in AUD

Core Mining Operations

Northern Star's revenue and operations are generated through three main gold production centers in tier-one, low-risk jurisdictions: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

• Kalgoorlie (Western Australia): Includes the iconic KCGM Operations (the Kalgoorlie Super Pit and Mt Charlotte underground) and Kanowna Belle.
• Yandal (Western Australia): Includes the large-scale Jundee and Thunderbox operations.
• Pogo (Alaska, USA): An underground gold mine operated by Northern Star in North America. [1, 2, 3]

In addition to producing gold bullion, the company continues to advance the major Hemi development project in Western Australia's Pilbara region. For further insights into their market positioning or detailed asset portfolios, you can review the company's full ASX listing materials or visit their official website. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

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Over the past five years, Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) has successfully transitioned from a mid-tier operator to a major global gold miner, capitalizing on strong production growth and higher gold prices. The company maintains a healthy, deleveraged balance sheet alongside consistent profitability. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

5-Year Financial & Operational Breakdown

• Revenue & Profit: Revenue has grown significantly over the last 3 to 5 years, jumping from ~A$4.1B in 2023 to record revenues nearing A$6.96B on a trailing 12-month basis. Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) has surged as well, with first-half 2026 NPAT reaching A$714.4M (a 41% year-over-year increase). [1, 2]
• Debt Position: ASX:NST has a very strong and conservative balance sheet. Its long-term debt sits at ~A$1.46B, which is dwarfed by a significant equity base of over A$14B, resulting in a very low Debt-to-Equity ratio of roughly 0.12. The company boasts a net cash position when factoring in its cash and bullion holdings. [1, 2, 3]
• Return on Equity (ROE): Historically, NST's Return on Equity has trended between 7% and 13%, with trailing 12-month metrics tracking closer to the 13% mark as higher gold prices have boosted margins and cash generation. [1, 2, 3, 4]
• Share Price Performance: The stock has performed strongly, trading near A$22.16 with a market capitalization of approximately A$30.05 billion. Over the past three years, earnings per share (EPS) grew roughly 43% annually, which has supported steady share price appreciation over the medium term. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
• Dividends: The company has a long track record of dividend growth. Most recently, it paid a fully franked interim dividend of A$0.25 per share, supported by a target payout ratio near 46-47%. [1, 2, 3]

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PE ratios

Over the last 10 years, Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST) has traded at a 10-year mean P/E ratio of 22.75x and a median P/E ratio of 20.17x. The stock's valuation has fluctuated based on gold price cycles and structural acquisitions, tracking between an annual low of 10.1x (2022) and an annual high of 46.58x. As of July 2026, the trailing 12-month (TTM) P/E ratio sits at approximately 18.45x. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Historical Annual P/E Ratios (Fiscal Year Ending June)

Fiscal Year [1, 2, 3, 4]	P/E Ratio	Valuation Context & Drivers
2025	16.6x – 23.2x	High gold prices boosted earnings, contracting the multiple despite strong share price gains.
2024	21.7x – 23.6x	Earnings normalized after integration costs from major Western Australian asset expansions.
2023	34.4x	Peaked due to lower accounting earnings tracking behind upfront capital expenditure at KCGM.
2022	10.1x	Hit a 5-year low following a market-wide mining sell-off and the integration of Saracen.
2021	16.9x	Shifted due to structural changes from the mega-merger with Saracen Mineral Holdings.
2020	~24.1x	Expansion phase driven by a global safe-haven gold rush during early pandemic market cycles.
2019	~18.5x	Steady state matching the industry median; supported by consistent production growth.
2018	~22.0x	High institutional interest as the company solidified its status as an ASX top-tier gold miner.
2017	~17.8x	Strong operational cash flow kept valuation multiple modest relative to profit increases.
2016	~15.2x	Early stage growth cycle with rapid earnings per share growth outpacing share price momentum.

Note: Historical valuation metrics can differ slightly between platforms like Market Index and Investing Pro based on whether basic, diluted, statutory, or underlying EPS is used.

Key Statistical Trends

• 10-Year Average: 22.75x
• 10-Year Median: 20.17x
• 10-Year Maximum (Annual): 46.58x (Quarterly peak reached 65.72x in Dec 2022).
• 10-Year Minimum (Annual): 8.50x (Hit a cyclical low of 10.1x in June 2022). [1, 2]

Action Plan for Investors Analyzing NST's P/E

1. Isolate Gold Price Distortions: Commodity producers often look "expensive" (high P/E) at cyclical earnings bottoms and "cheap" (low P/E) at earnings peaks. Cross-reference P/E moves with global gold price charts.
2. Evaluate via Peer Metrics: Compare the current 18.45x multiple to Australian gold peers like Evolution Mining or Capricorn Metals using the Simply Wall St Valuation Tool to judge relative value. [1, 2, 3]
3. Monitor Forward Growth: The historical trailing ratio can lag behind active mining developments. Review forward-looking production timelines on the Northern Star Investor Portal to assess if upcoming production volume supports a lower forward P/E.

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Fundamentals

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ASX-NST/financials-overview/

https://stockanalysis.com/quote/asx/nst/statistics/

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I've taken the info from Commsec & some data from StockAnalysis

📊 Northern Star (NST) — Balance Sheet Snapshot (FY2025-ish)

(Rounded from real data so it’s easier to understand)

🟢 Assets

+ Current assets: ~$3.0B

+ Non-current assets: ~$17.4B

✅ Total assets: ~ $20.4B

🔴 Liabilities

+ Current liabilities: ~$1.6B

+ Non-current liabilities: ~$3.9B

❗ Total liabilities: ~ $5.5B

🟠 Equity

+ Shareholders’ equity: ~$14.9B

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🧠 Step-by-step: How to read THIS balance sheet

🔍 1. Short-term safety (very important)

👉 Compare:

+Current assets: $3.0B

+Current liabilities: $1.6B

That’s roughly:

👉 ~1.8x coverage

✅ Interpretation:

+ NST can comfortably pay short-term bills

+ No immediate liquidity stress

✔️ This is a strong sign

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🔍 2. Debt level (risk check)

👉 Total:

+ Liabilities: $5.5B

+ Equity: $14.9B

👉 Debt vs equity is low-ish

✅ Interpretation:

+Balance sheet is conservative

+ Not heavily leveraged

👉 For a mining company, this is actually quite healthy

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🔍 3. What kind of assets does NST have?

Here’s the key insight:

~$16B+ in property, plant & equipment (from stockAnalysis)

👉 That’s mines, equipment, infrastructure

🧠 Translation:

This is a capital-intensive business

Most value is tied up in physical assets (gold mines)

⚠️ Important:

These aren’t easily turned into cash quickly

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🔍 4. Cash position (important nuance)

Cash: ~$1.6B (FY2025)

Net debt: roughly neutral to slightly negative

👉 Meaning:

They’re not drowning in debt

But they’re not sitting on huge excess cash either

🟡 Interpretation:

Balanced, but not ultra-defensive

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🔍 5. Is the company building value?

👉 Equity growth:

~$8.8B (2024) → ~$14.9B (2025)

That’s a big jump

🧠 Why?

Likely combination of:

+Profits --- jump in gold price

+Asset revaluations

+Capital raising

⚠️ Important nuance:

Shares outstanding increased ~16% YoY

👉 So:

Some growth comes from issuing new shares (dilution)

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⚖️ The core equation (always holds)

Assets=Liabilities+Equity

For NST:

~$20.4B = ~$5.5B + ~$14.9B ✔️

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🚨 VERY IMPORTANT: Context 

NST’s balance sheet looks solid…

BUT recent news shows:

Production issues

Downgrades in output guidance

Operational problems at key mines

👉 This matters because:

A strong balance sheet = can survive problems

But it doesn’t guarantee strong returns

🧭 So… is NST financially strong?

✅ Strengths

Good liquidity (can pay short-term obligations)

Reasonable debt levels

Large asset base

Strong equity position

⚠️ Watch-outs

Heavy reliance on physical mining assets

Cash not massive relative to size

Share dilution recently

Operational issues (this is big)