Tuesday, 1 April 2025

XRF Scientific

 XRF - scientific
(passes team invest filter 2026)

XRF Scientific Limited (XRF) is a Company engaged in manufacturing and marketing metal products, specialised chemicals and instruments for the scientific, analytical and mining industries.

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ASX:XRF has demonstrated consistent growth over the last 5 years, with earnings compounding at ~ 17.6% annually. The company exhibits an exceptionally strong balance sheet with negligible debt, steadily increasing Return on Equity (ROE) to ~ 18.4%, and expanding net profit margins. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Key Financial Metrics
  • Profitability: Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) has been trending upward alongside revenue, with recent TTM net income hovering around $10.63M. Profit margins are solid at ~ 17%. [1, 2, 3]


  • Debt: Minimal and highly manageable. Debt-to-equity stands at ~ 1.7%, with total liabilities heavily outweighed by short-term investments and cash (around $12.1M). [1]
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Has climbed consecutively from ~ 13.7% in 2021 to a recent peak of ~ 18.4%


Five-Year Shareholder Value
  • Growth: XRF's annual earnings growth rate has outpaced many industry standards. Note , between 2012 to 2017 there was zero revenue growth (bottom of the mining cycle), but in 2018 they started to see their revenue increase.
  • Dividend: XRF maintains a consistent payout ratio around 60%, with a trailing dividend yield of roughly 2.5% and 100% franking.  the div was low in 2017 - corresponds to a lowpoint in the mining cycle. They are definitely a dividend paying company. [1, 2, 3]


Recent Developments
XRF has driven recent revenue growth through strong international sales (notably in Asia), the setup of a new office in India, and the strategic acquisition of combustion gas analysis businesses to extend its market share. [1, 2]

share price.... buy @ $1.50 ?
ROIC Vs ROE - both need to be above 10. are they growing?
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As of mid-2026, XRF Scientific Limited (ASX: XRF) trades at a trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratio of approximately 22.5x to 24.8x. Over the past decade, XRF’s valuation multiple has evolved from a deeply discounted micro-cap level to a premium growth multiple, mirroring its strong compound annual earnings growth. [1, 2, 3, 4]
10-Year Historical P/E Ratio Breakdown
The table below tracks the approximate year-end or fiscal year-end (June 30) Price-to-Earnings ratios for ASX:XRF over the last 10 years: [1, 2]
YearApproximate P/E RatioValuation Context & Market Sentiment
2026 (Current TTM)22.5x – 24.8xMarket is pricing in stable high margins and the successful acquisition/integration of Bruker's CGA business.
202524.8xPeak historical multiple following exceptional net profit growth (NPAT up to $10.38M).
202420.8xSolid earnings growth compression as stock price matched consecutive record quarters.
202320.8xMultiple expansion began as mining tech and capital laboratory equipment demand surged.
202212.7xPost-pandemic recovery phase; valued strictly as a small-cap industrial manufacturer.
202112.4xSubdued multiple due to broader macroeconomic supply chain uncertainties.
202010.3xPandemic market low; briefly dropped to a low of 7.5x before recovering to 10x.
201911.3xLow-growth cyclical valuation reflecting mining sector consolidation.
201812.5xConsistent dividend payer, but largely ignored by institutional investors due to micro-cap status.
201713.0xBaseline historical valuation when the company primarily generated sub-$3M annual NPAT.
Key Valuation Trends
  • The Valuation Rerating (2023–2025): For the first half of the decade, XRF routinely traded at a heavily discounted valuation of 10x to 13x earnings. It rerated past 20x only after demonstrating consistent 15%+ annual dividend growth alongside predictable high-margin consumable revenue. [1, 2, 3]
  • Premium vs. Industry: Historically trading below or in line with the ASX machinery and capital goods sector (which averages ~14x to 19x), XRF now trades at a distinct valuation premium to the broader Australian market due to its robust return on equity (ROE >17%). [1, 2]
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For XRF Scientific Ltd (ASX:XRF), the return on invested capital (ROIC) consistently exceeds the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The current ROIC sits roughly between 16.85% and 20.79%, while its WACC is approximately 7.70% to 9.29%, demonstrating strong historical and current economic value creation. [1, 2, 3]
ROIC vs. WACC Performance
  • Current ROIC: ~16.9% to 20.8% (reflecting high capital efficiency and strong compounding returns). [, 2]
  • Current WACC: ~7.7% to 9.3% (reflecting low relative debt and a modest cost of equity). [1]
  • 10-Year Trend Context: Over the past decade, XRF's WACC has maintained a median of roughly 7.21%, while its post-recovery operational profitability has driven ROIC well into the mid-to-high teens and low twenties. []
  • Value Spread: The positive spread (ROIC well above WACC) indicates that the company successfully generates high excess returns on its operating capital and consistently creates economic value for shareholders. [1, 2]

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EBITDA

The current trailing twelve months (TTM) EBITDA margin for XRF Scientific Limited (ASX:XRF) is approximately 26.0%. Over the past decade, its operating efficiency has substantially expanded from ~10% up to peaks near 29%. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Historical EBITDA Margins
  • 2025/2026 (TTM): ~26.0% to 29.2%
  • 2024: ~25.1% (Calculated from $15.04M EBITDA on $59.85M income)
  • 2023: ~24.5%
  • 2022: ~23.8%
  • 2021: ~21.5%
  • 2020: ~18.2%
  • 2019: 14.2%
  • 2018: 10.1%
  • 2017: ~9.5%
  • 2016: ~11.0% [1, 2, 3, 4]
The multi-year upward trajectory highlights an improving mix of higher-margin product consumables and international scaling. [1]
Would you like to examine the exact dollar figures for revenue and EBITDA alongside these margins? Are there specific fiscal years you want to break down into divisional performance?

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