Saturday, 16 August 2025

Roast 11 - cafemasy - Guatamala Antiguia & Ethiopia Limu

 Some roasting for a Guatamala Antiguia bean.


I'm using the Cafe Masy sample roaster

This is a air roaster

I'm slowly getting to know this roaster.
The temps displayed are not the internal bean temp
but still useful 












Guatemala Antigua coffee is a world-renowned, high-altitude Arabica (Bourbon, Caturra, Catuai) grown in mineral-rich volcanic soil between three volcanoes. 

It is characterized by a full body, velvety texture, and distinct flavor notes of chocolate, caramel, spices, and citrus.

Often classified as Strictly Hard Bean (SHB), this premium, shade-grown coffee is ideal for medium to dark roasts, making it excellent for espresso and pour-over.

Altitude: 4,600 – 5,600+ feet (1,400 - 1,700+ meters), classifying it as Strictly Hard Bean (SHB).

flavor Profile: Complex and rich, featuring chocolate, spices, caramel, and a refined citrus or floral acidity.

Growing Conditions: Volcanic soil, high altitude, and a distinct, dry climate, which helps produce consistent, high-quality cherries.

Roast Profile: Best suited for medium to dark roasts, which highlight its chocolate and smokey, spicy notes.

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Roast 11a - Guatemala Antigua coffee

I roasted in 3 stages
1. 197C for 3.5 mins
2. 202C for 6.5 mins
3. 227C for 2 min
















The total roast time (drop) = 12 min
Preheat @195C for 2 mins
Start: 100g
end : 87.1g 
water loss = 12.9g.  thus medium roast

----------------------------------------------------
Roast 11b - Guatemala Antigua coffee


I roasted in 4 stages
1. 197C for 3.5 mins
2. 202C for 4 mins
3. 210C for 1.5 mins
4. 227C for 1.5 min















The total roast time (drop) = 10.30 min
Preheat @195C for 2 mins
Start: 100g
end : 89.5g 
water loss = 10.5 %  thus light-medium roast


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Ethiopia Limu is a premium, high-grown washed Arabica coffee from southwestern Ethiopia, widely regarded for its balanced, winey, and fruity profile. It features bright, citrusy acidity, floral overtones, and a smooth, full body. Often featuring notes of berry or chocolate, Limu coffee is highly consistent, making it excellent for single-origin espresso or pour-over. 

Key Characteristics of Limu Coffee
Flavor Profile: Typically presents a complex mix of fruit (berry, apricot), spice, and floral notes with a pleasant, sweet acidity.
Processing: Primarily wet-processed (washed), which results in a cleaner, brighter cup compared to natural-processed Ethiopian coffees.
Growing Region: Grown in the Western/Southern part of Ethiopia at high altitudes (1,500–1,800+ meters above sea level).
Body & Roast: Known for a balanced, full body that stands up well to medium or light roasting.

Limu is often compared to neighboring Yirgacheffe and Sidamo coffees but is distinguished by a slightly fuller, more robust body




Tuesday, 12 August 2025

NST Balance sheet - example

This is the Balance Sheet using real data for the Gold Miner, Northern Star. 
ASX : NST
I've taken the info from Commsec & some data from StockAnalysis


πŸ“Š Northern Star (NST) — Balance Sheet Snapshot (FY2025-ish)
(Rounded from real data so it’s easier to understand)

🟒 Assets
+ Current assets: ~$3.0B
+ Non-current assets: ~$17.4B

✅ Total assets: ~ $20.4B

πŸ”΄ Liabilities
+ Current liabilities: ~$1.6B
+ Non-current liabilities: ~$3.9B

❗ Total liabilities: ~ $5.5B

🟠 Equity
+ Shareholders’ equity: ~$14.9B

=======================================

🧠 Step-by-step: How to read THIS balance sheet

πŸ” 1. Short-term safety (very important)
πŸ‘‰ Compare:
+Current assets: $3.0B
+Current liabilities: $1.6B

That’s roughly:
πŸ‘‰ ~1.8x coverage

✅ Interpretation:

+ NST can comfortably pay short-term bills
+ No immediate liquidity stress

✔️ This is a strong sign

-----------------------------------------
πŸ” 2. Debt level (risk check)
πŸ‘‰ Total:
+ Liabilities: $5.5B
+ Equity: $14.9B

πŸ‘‰ Debt vs equity is low-ish

✅ Interpretation:
+Balance sheet is conservative
+ Not heavily leveraged

πŸ‘‰ For a mining company, this is actually quite healthy

------------------------------




πŸ” 3. What kind of assets does NST have?

Here’s the key insight:

~$16B+ in property, plant & equipment (from stockAnalysis)
πŸ‘‰ That’s mines, equipment, infrastructure

🧠 Translation:
This is a capital-intensive business
Most value is tied up in physical assets (gold mines)

⚠️ Important:
These aren’t easily turned into cash quickly

----------------------------
πŸ” 4. Cash position (important nuance)
Cash: ~$1.6B (FY2025)
Net debt: roughly neutral to slightly negative

πŸ‘‰ Meaning:

They’re not drowning in debt
But they’re not sitting on huge excess cash either

🟑 Interpretation:

Balanced, but not ultra-defensive

-----------------------------
πŸ” 5. Is the company building value?
πŸ‘‰ Equity growth:

~$8.8B (2024) → ~$14.9B (2025)

That’s a big jump

🧠 Why?
Likely combination of:
+Profits --- jump in gold price
+Asset revaluations
+Capital raising

⚠️ Important nuance:
Shares outstanding increased ~16% YoY
πŸ‘‰ So:
Some growth comes from issuing new shares (dilution)

----------------------

⚖️ The core equation (always holds)

Assets=Liabilities+Equity

For NST:

~$20.4B = ~$5.5B + ~$14.9B ✔️
==================

🚨 VERY IMPORTANT: Context 

NST’s balance sheet looks solid…

BUT recent news shows:

Production issues
Downgrades in output guidance
Operational problems at key mines

πŸ‘‰ This matters because:

A strong balance sheet = can survive problems
But it doesn’t guarantee strong returns

🧭 So… is NST financially strong?
✅ Strengths
Good liquidity (can pay short-term obligations)
Reasonable debt levels
Large asset base
Strong equity position
⚠️ Watch-outs
Heavy reliance on physical mining assets
Cash not massive relative to size
Share dilution recently
Operational issues (this is big)

Tuesday, 5 August 2025

OMO vs QE vs EL vs RMP (different ways to manage money supply = money printing)


OMO

Open market operations (OMOs) are a primary monetary policy tool where a central bank (e.g., the Federal Reserve) buys or sells government securities in the open market to regulate the money supply and influence interest rates. 
Buying securities injects liquidity (money) into the banking system to lower interest rates and boost economic activity. 
Selling securities absorbs liquidity to raise interest rates and curb inflation. 

Key Aspects of Open Market Operations:
Purpose: To manage liquidity, influence the cost of credit, and achieve monetary policy targets like inflation and employment.
Mechanism: When the central bank buys securities from commercial banks, it increases the reserves banks have, encouraging lending. Conversely, selling securities reduces bank reserves, tightening credit.
Target Rates: These operations are used to keep short-term interest rates (such as the Federal Reserve Board's federal funds rate or the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate) near a specific target.

Types:
Permanent (POMO): Long-term purchases/sales to manage structural liquidity.
Temporary: Often in the form of repurchase agreements (repos) to handle short-term fluctuations.
Evolution: Since the 2008 financial crisis, many central banks have used large-scale, long-term asset purchases (quantitative easing) rather than just small, daily operations. 


Quantitative Easing (QE)

Open Market Operations (OMO) and Quantitative Easing (QE) are both central bank tools to manage the money supply, but differ significantly in scale and intent. OMOs are routine, small-scale purchases of short-term bonds to target interest rates. QE is an emergency, large-scale, pre-announced buying of long-term, riskier assets (e.g., mortgage-backed securities) used when interest rates are near zero.

OMOs manage liquidity and short-term interest rates. QE aims to lower long-term interest rates, boost asset prices, and spur lending when conventional policy is exhausted.
Asset Type: OMOs typically involve short-term government securities. QE involves long-term government debt and, in some cases, private assets or corporate bonds.QE is an unconventional, non-traditional tool typically utilized during severe economic crises (e.g., 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic)

Mechanism:
Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy where central banks (e.g., The Federal Reserve, Bank of England) create new digital money to purchase long-term securities, such as government bonds, from commercial banks. This injects liquidity into the financial system, lowers long-term interest rates, and encourages lending and investment to stimulate economic activity.
It's really the modern version of printing money...… it has the negative effect of debasing the value of the currency.

Modern implications.
The devaluing of the USD. Debasement.
Rise of crypto
Movement to other "safer currencies"
Movement into hard assets.... Gold, silver, property, equities.
The BRICS have launched a gold backed currency … the "UNIT" and central banks around the world are buying gold.

EL
Emergency liquidity
Emergency liquidity refers to the discretionary, last-resort funding provided by a central bank (e.g., RBA or ECB) to solvent but illiquid financial institutions experiencing acute, short-term funding shortages. It acts as a safety net during crises to maintain financial system stability. Examples include Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) repo., covid, 


RMP
Reserve Management Purchases
Reserve management purchases (RMPs) are technical, secondary market Treasury bill acquisitions by the Federal Reserve designed to maintain "ample" reserve balances in the banking system, rather than to alter monetary policy. Starting in December 2025, these operations, sometimes called "not QE" help manage seasonal demand for reserves and ensure smooth market functioning.

WTF ??
What does this all mean?

The primary goal is to maintain a sufficient level of reserves, 
ensuring that the federal funds rate remains within the FOMC's target range.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Open Market Trading Desk buys short-term Treasury securities in the secondary market, which increases the SOMA (System Open Market Account) portfolio.

Distinction from Quantitative Easing (QE): 
RMPs are technical adjustments to manage the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet (specifically bank reserves) to meet demand, whereas QE is intended to stimulate the economy by lowering long-term interest rates. Consequently, the Fed will likely be buying around $55 billion of T-bills per month through at least April. Cutting interest rates 

SO... the govt is printing money to buy govt debt (because no one else wants it).

Monday, 4 August 2025

Balance Sheet

 This is how the Balance sheet is shown on the Commsec site.



The entire thing comes down to one equation:
Assets = Liabilities + Equity

Think of it like:
🏠 “What the company owns” = “what it owes” + “what belongs to shareholders”

Compare Debt to Equity 
and
Assets to Liabilities
and 
Look at the Cash level

=================================================

How the Balance Sheet is structured (on CommSec)

1. Assets (what the company owns)

These are split into two main types:

🟒 Current assets (short-term)
+ Cash
+ Inventory
+ Receivables (money owed to the company)

πŸ‘‰ These turn into cash within ~12 months

πŸ”΅ Non-current assets (long-term)
+ Property, factories
+ Equipment
+ Investments
+ Intangible stuff (brands, goodwill)

πŸ‘‰ These are long-term resources

2. Liabilities (Debt - what the company owes)

These are also split into two types:
πŸ”΄ Current liabilities (short-term debts)
Bills
Supplier payments
Short-term loans

πŸ‘‰ Due within 1 year

🟠 Non-current liabilities (long-term debts)
Bank loans
Bonds
Lease obligations

πŸ‘‰ Due over many years

3. Equity (what shareholders “own”)

This is the leftover after debts:

Share capital (money investors put in)
Retained earnings (profits kept in the business)

πŸ‘‰ Basically: company’s net worth

---------------------------------------------------------------
=====================================

🧠 How to actually READ it (this is the key part)

When you look at a balance sheet on CommSec, don’t just read numbers — ask these:

1. Is the company financially safe?
πŸ‘‰ Look at:
       + Cash vs short-term debt
       + “Current assets vs current liabilities”

Rule of thumb:
If current assets > current liabilities → generally safer
This is called the current ratio

2. Is the company heavily in debt?
πŸ‘‰ Compare:
  + Total liabilities vs equity
  + High debt = higher risk
  + Low debt = safer but possibly slower growth

3. What kind of assets does it have?
πŸ‘‰ Important nuance:
   + Cash = strong
   + Inventory = less liquid
   + Intangibles (goodwill) = sometimes questionable

4. Is equity growing over time?
πŸ‘‰ Check:
  + Are retained earnings increasing?
That means:
The company is keeping profits and building value.

-----

πŸ“‰ Example (super simplified)
Imagine a company on shows:

Assets: $1,000
Liabilities: $600
Equity: $400

That means:

It owns $1,000 worth of stuff
Owes $600
Shareholders “own” $400
=================================================
🧭 How to use this on CommSec (step-by-step)

Next time you open a stock:

1. Go to Financials → Balance Sheet
2. Look at:
    + Current assets vs current liabilities
    + Total debt vs equity
    + Cash level

And ask:

πŸ‘‰ “If things went bad today… is this company financially strong or fragile?”


Saturday, 2 August 2025

Commsec Financials Page explanation

This is a description of a typical summary page (from commsec in this example) for 
education purposes only.
You ca apply these concepts to any end of year company summary

Under the  Financials tab, you’re usually seeing:



1. Company historicals
High-level summary (revenue, profit, EPS, etc.)
Earnings, dividends, 
ROE, ROC, gearing, NTA/share
Usually covers 3–10 years
Think: “Is this company growing?”

2. Historical financials
More detailed income statement (profit & loss)
Shows:
Revenue
Expenses
Net profit

πŸ‘‰ This is about performance over time

3. Balance sheet 
+ Snapshot at a single point in time (e.g. June 30)
+ Shows:
What the company owns
What it owes
What’s left for shareholders

πŸ‘‰ This is about financial position / health

4. Performance and Risk
+ Total Shareholder return
+ Risk - Beta, ratios, Debt/Equity
+ Segment Performance
+ Liquidity