Sunday, 26 September 2021

TLRA - TALARIA GLOBAL EQUITY FUND COMPLEX ETF

 TLRA
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Global
6-8% yield
quarterly payments

 
8% tech - low exposure to tech & US
20% cash
overweight healthcare & consumer discresionary

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ARGO vs TLRA buffett style 2026 sept

Comparing Argo Investments (ASX: ARG) and the Talaria Global Equity Fund (ASX: TLRA) from a Warren Buffett value-investing perspective reveals two fundamentally different animals. [1, 2]
ARG is a classic, ultra-low-cost Listed Investment Company (LIC) focusing on buying and holding conservative Australian blue chips. Meanwhile, TLRA is an active global value ETF that synthetically juices its distribution yield using short-dated option strategies. [1, 2, 3]
Performance & Fundamental Comparison
MetricArgo Investments (ASX: ARG)Talaria Global Equity Fund (ASX: TLRA)
Asset Class FocusAustralian Large Cap EquitiesInternational Large Cap Value Equities
Price-to-Earnings (P/E)26.6xVariable (Portfolio holds low-P/E global value)
Dividend Yield (Trailing)~4.2% (6.0% grossed up with 100% franking)~8.2% (Unfranked or minimally franked)
10-Year Total Return~8.7% p.a.~8.5% p.a.
Dividend Growth StyleConsistent, linear, and smoothed out over timeVolatile, high-yield payouts driven by options income
Management Costs (MER)0.14% p.a.1.16% p.a.

The Buffett Style Breakdown
Warren Buffett’s investment blueprint focuses heavily on low costs, sustainable competitive moats, understandable business models, and compounding organic dividend growth. Applying these filters highlights where each fund aligns with or diverges from the Berkshire Hathaway philosophy.
1. Long-Term Growth & Moats
  • ARG: Operates like a mini-conglomerate. Its "moat" is a rock-bottom 0.14% management fee and an 80-year history of patient ownership in durable Australian infrastructure, materials, and banking giants. [1, 2]
  • TLRA: Focuses on out-of-favor global large-caps (e.g., Bayer, GSK, Roche, Henkel). However, capital growth is intentionally sacrificed. Because TLRA routinely sells put options to generate immediate premium income, it caps its maximum upside during roaring bull markets. From a Buffett perspective, capping the upside of great businesses conflicts with letting compounders run indefinitely. [1, 2]
2. Valuation (P/E Ratio)
  • ARG: Its current trailing P/E sits historically high at 26.6x, largely reflecting the expensive valuation of the top-heavy ASX 200 index. Buffett famously dislikes overpaying for slow-growing businesses. [1]
  • TLRA: The underlying equity portfolio uses a strict value filter, typically buying global businesses trading at very low multiple metrics. This disciplined approach to avoiding expensive growth traps aligns tightly with Buffett's safety margin principles. [1]
3. Dividend Stability & Dividend Growth
  • ARG: This is a pure Buffett-style dividend stream. Because ARG is a Listed Investment Company, it can retain earnings during bumper years to keep paying and growing its dividend during recessions. Over the long term, dividends have grown modestly (averaging 2.7% per year), reinforced by 100% Australian franking credits.
  • TLRA: Features a massively elevated yield (~8.2%) but a non-Buffett mechanism. Instead of relying solely on corporations organically raising their payouts, TLRA generates a large chunk of its cash distributions from options premium. Payouts are paid quarterly but fluctuate significantly based on global market volatility rather than true corporate earnings growth. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
4. Cost Efficiency
  • ARG: At 0.14%, it mirrors Buffett’s demand for minimal frictional costs that decay long-term compounding.
  • TLRA: At 1.16%, the structural complexity of managing an options strategy introduces heavy fees that Buffett historically counsels retail investors to strictly avoid. [1]
The Verdict
If you want a classic Buffett buy-and-hold vehicle, Argo (ARG) wins on structural simplicity, low fees, and organic, smoothed dividend income. However, if your portfolio is light on international exposure and heavily values an immediate cash distribution yield, TLRA delivers global value extraction at the expense of long-term capital compounding. [1, 2, 3, 4]

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Thursday, 23 September 2021

Smart group - SIQ

 SIQ
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Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (ASX:SIQ) trades at $11.65 AUD with a market capitalization of roughly $1.61 billion AUD, specializing in outsourced employee benefits and salary packaging. [1]
A better company than MMS (pretty much does the same thing??)
📊 Company Overview
  • Provides outsourced salary packaging
  • Manages novated leasing programs
  • Offers end-to-end fleet management
  • Serves government and corporate clients
  • Operates under brands like Smartsalary [1, 2, 3]
📈 Financial Snapshot (sept 2026)
  • Share Price: $11.65 AUD
  • Market Capitalization: $1.61 Billion AUD
  • P/E Ratio: ~18.2 (2026-sept)
  • Dividend Yield: ~3.7%
  • Revenue (FY25): $329.3 Million AUD [1]
💡 Recent Developments
  • Active $20 million share buyback program
  • Stable, recurring revenue business model
  • Moderate growth forecasts near 3.3% annually
  • Led by CEO Scott Wharton [1, 2]
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The historical Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios for Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (ASX: SIQ) showcase a company that generally trades within a range of 11x to 19x earnings, reflective of its steady position in the salary packaging and fleet management sector. [1, 2]
Below is the historical P/E ratio breakdown for ASX: SIQ over the last several fiscal years: [1]
📊 Historical P/E Ratios (FY 2021 – Current)
Fiscal PeriodP/E RatioForward P/EPeriod Ending
Current (Sept 2026)18.0216.61Trailing Twelve Months (TTM)
FY 202514.9314.77December 2025
FY 202413.3313.42December 2024
FY 202318.2816.64December 2023
FY 202211.2411.22December 2022
FY 202117.0615.10December 2021

🔎 Context Behind the Trend
  • Valuation Normalisation: SIQ's current P/E of roughly 18.0x sits slightly above its recent 5-year average. This premium has been driven by a strong post-pandemic recovery and accelerating top-line growth, supported by steady demand for novated leasing under electric vehicle (EV) tax incentives. [1, 2]
  • The 2022 Low: The compression down to 11.24x in 2022 was a macro-driven anomaly rather than a structural failure. Global supply chain constraints severely restricted new vehicle deliveries across Australia, artificially suppressing delivery volumes despite high consumer order books. [1]
  • Peer Context: At ~18x, Smartgroup trades at a slight premium relative to its primary competitor, McMillan Shakespeare (ASX: MMS), which historically trades closer to 12x–13x forward earnings. This premium is generally sustained by Smartgroup's lean operational structure and traditionally high Return on Equity (ROE).
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📊 Smartgroup Corporation (ASX:SIQ) ROIC vs. WACC
Smartgroup Corporation's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) has consistently and significantly outperformed its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) over the past 10 years, demonstrating strong, enduring economic value creation. [1, 2, 3]
📈 10-Year Performance Overview
  • Average ROIC: ~13% to 26% range historically (often peaking above 25% depending on the fiscal year's capital structure and earnings). [1, 2, 3]
  • Average WACC: ~7% to 7.7% range. [1, 2, 3]
  • Spread (ROIC - WACC): Consistently positive (+6% to +18% spread), indicating high capital efficiency and a durable economic moat. [1, 2, 3, 4]
💡 Value Creation Mechanics
  • Economic Spread: ROIC comfortably exceeds WACC every single year, proving profitable capital allocation. [1, 2, 3]
  • M&A Efficiency: High ROIC despite substantial goodwill indicates successful integration of past acquisitions. [1]
  • Core Driver: Asset-light outsourced administration and salary packaging model generate robust cash flows relative to invested capital. [1, 2]
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More buffett analysis


An analysis of Smartgroup Corporation Ltd (ASX:SIQ) shows that the company operates a capital-light, high-moat business model that yields exceptional returns. [1, 2]
Below is a detailed breakdown of its historical Return on Equity (ROE) trends and how its management's capital allocation decisions hold up against standard Warren Buffett benchmarks. [1, 2]

📈 Historical ROE Trends (2021 – 2026)
Smartgroup's capital efficiency has shown remarkable upward momentum over the last five years, largely driven by structural tailwinds—such as the EV-induced surge in novated leasing volumes—and strong platform scalability. [1, 2]
PeriodReturn on Equity (ROE)Key Trend Drivers
Trailing 12 Months (Mid-2026)30.98%Peaked due to record client growth and an expanded fleet.
FY 202529.68%Revenue grew 8% ($329.3M); EBITDA margins expanded to 41%.
FY 202430.11%Acceleration fueled by the Federal Electric Vehicle Home Charging/FBT concessions.
FY 202325.58%Consistent normalization post-pandemic as new vehicle supply chains cleared.
FY 202223.21%Solid foundational year; customer retention held steady at ~97%.
FY 202121.90%Five-year low, constrained by macro vehicle supply shortages.
  • The Takeaway: SIQ's 5-year average ROE stands at a stellar 26.1%. It is expanding its profitability even as its total asset base grows, proving that its operating leverage is highly active. [1, 2, 3]

🏢 Capital Allocation vs. Buffett Benchmarks
Warren Buffett evaluates companies based on clear-cut capital metrics that separate compounding machines from capital-destroying operations. Here is how SIQ matches up against the classic rules outlined in Berkshire Hathaway's shareholder letters. [1, 2]
1. The ROE Threshold
  • Buffett Benchmark: Average ROE > 20% over 10 years, with no single year dipping below 15%. [1]
  • SIQ Performance: Passes. SIQ’s current ROE sits at 30.98%. Even its 5-year low (21.9% in 2021) sits comfortably above Buffett’s hard 15% floor. [1, 2, 3]
2. The Debt Check
  • Buffett Benchmark: Low reliance on long-term debt; high earnings-to-debt capability. [1]
  • SIQ Performance: Passes. SIQ maintains an incredibly healthy balance sheet with a cash-to-debt ratio of roughly 3.31. Its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is 26.53%, which heavily outpaces its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 7.45%. This confirms that its high ROE is a byproduct of real operational profitability, not artificial leverage. [1, 2]
3. Economic Moat & Gross Margins
  • Buffett Benchmark: Durable economic moats that protect a high gross profit margin (at least 40%). [1, 2]
  • SIQ Performance: Passes. As an outsourced services platform, SIQ boasts an extraordinary gross margin of 97.03%. High switching costs anchor this moat: employers rarely shift payroll, fleet management, or salary packaging providers once established, yielding a sticky ~97% customer retention rate. [1, 2, 3]
4. The Retained Earnings Test ("The $1 Rule")
  • Buffett Benchmark: Management should only retain earnings if every dollar kept creates at least one dollar of market value. If it cannot re-invest at high returns, it must distribute it. [1]
  • SIQ Performance: Hybrid / High-Distribution Approach. Because SIQ requires minimal capital to sustain its core IT infrastructure, management heavily favors distributing earnings directly back to shareholders.
    • Payout Ratio: It operates at a high ordinary dividend payout ratio of ~87% (fully franked).
    • Share Buybacks: Management opportunistically uses share buybacks when they believe the equity is undervalued, returning further capital.
    • Strategic Spending: The remaining ~13% of retained cash is funneled directly into digital platform enhancements and bolt-on acquisitions to safeguard their high market share. [1, 2, 3]

⚠️ The Core Risk to the Thesis
While SIQ reads like a textbook Buffett compounder on paper, it carries a prominent risk that Buffett traditionally avoids: Regulatory/Key Man Risk. [1]
Because a significant portion of SIQ’s business model depends on Australian Fringe Benefits Tax (FBT) concessions for novated vehicle leases, any adverse change to federal tax law could impair its earning power overnight. Therefore, while its historical capital metrics easily hit standard Buffett benchmarks, its structural reliance on legislation requires a higher margin of safety from investors.
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