ASX : ALD
28/6/26 Snapshot
Fundamentals
Earnings vs ROE
Earnings & ROE are not consistent
It's very difficult to predict earnings over a 5 year period
Future ROE is also hard to predict.
Everything depends on the current oil price.
again revenue is not consistent.
Has been declining . 2026 may be different with the Iran war
Dividend yield 5.2% ... its high, but ...
Again, dividends are all over the place ... hard to predict the future.
Debt - equity
Ampol Limited (ASX:ALD) has a Total Debt to Equity ratio of approximately 122.04%. However, depending on the specific analytical methodology (such as only evaluating long-term debt or net debt), metrics vary between 80% and 174%, indicating moderate to high financial leverage.
Debt has been increasing over the last 5 years.
Key Leverage & Debt Metrics
A detailed breakdown from various financial sources highlights the different ways ALD's debt is reported:
- Total Debt to Equity: 122.04%
- Long-Term Debt to Equity: 80.0%
- Net Debt to Equity: ~ 120%
- Balance Sheet Snapshot
- Total Debt: ~ $4.21 billion
- Total Equity (Book Value): ~ $3.5 billion
- Total Cash: ~ $57.9 million
...
ROIC Vs WACC
5.7% vs 4.9%
ROIC return on invested capital is below 10%. not great.
ROIC is greater than WACC (cost of capital) .... passable but the diff between the two isn't very large.
....
Earnings per share has been dropping
....
10 year chart for Ampol
vs the oil price
PE Ratios
Ampol Limited (ASX: ALD)—formerly known as Caltex Australia—has seen its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio fluctuate significantly over the last decade. [1]
Its historical 10-year mean P/E ratio sits at 23.07, with a long-term median of 13.75. The dramatic spike observed in 2025–2026 is primarily due to compressed statutory net profit margins, causing a lower earnings-per-share (EPS) denominator against a steady share price.
The current 35.90 PE (2026) Ratio has changed 15.46% with respect to the historical average. Over the past ten years (40 quarters), ALD.AX's PE Ratio was at its highest in in the June 2008 quarter at 53.18. The PE Ratio was at its lowest in in the June 2025 quarter at -58.50
Track 10-Year Annual P/E Ratios
The table below outlines the P/E ratios for Ampol Limited at the close of each fiscal year (ending December 31) from 2016 through to the current 2026 trailing twelve months (TTM) metric: [1]
| Year [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] | P/E Ratio | Key Market Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (TTM) | 95.8x – 97.2x?? | Lower refining margins compression against resilient stock value. |
| 2025 | 95.9x?? | Sharp statutory earnings decline down to AU$82.4 million. |
| 2024 | 16.2x | Softening global oil prices paired with moderate consumer retail demand. |
| 2023 | 25.4x | Post-pandemic travel rebound offset by higher supply chain operational costs. |
| 2022 | 8.3x | Exceptional refining margins following global energy supply shocks. |
| 2021 | 14.6x | Brand transformation from Caltex back to Ampol; initial economic recovery. |
| 2020 | 12.6x | Pandemic structural hit to fuel demand; heavily impacted underlying earnings. |
| 2019 | 8.5x | Weak refining marker margins and local refining margin headwinds. |
| 2018 | 15.7x | Stable domestic wholesale distribution volumes offsetting global oil volatility. |
| 2017 | 54.8x | Significant asset impairments and inventory losses skewing net profit. |
| 2016 | 92.3x | Cyclical bottom for fuel processing margins matched with high capex. |
Analyze Key Historical Trends
To optimize your analysis of Ampol's valuation cycle, look at these specific performance phases:
- The 2025–2026 Earnings Squeeze: Ampol's current near-triple-digit P/E ratio does not imply it has suddenly turned into a high-growth tech stock. Instead, full-year 2025 statutory net profit dropped by over 33% to AU$82.4m due to cyclical tightening of fuel margins, while the stock price remained robust. [1, 2]
- The 2022 Refining Peak: Conversely, when oil prices surged in 2022, Ampol's earnings skyrocketed. This caused its P/E ratio to fall to a value-territory low of 8.3x, showing peak cyclical profitability. [, 2]
- Forward Looking Estimates: Forward consensus estimates put Ampol's forward P/E ratio between 8.7x and 10.3x, assuming refining margins normalize and underlying earnings recover over the coming 12 to 24 months. [1, 2]
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