Wednesday, 19 February 2025

Stablecoins & US debt

 Most Stablecoins Already Depend on U.S. Debt

This part surprises people:
Many stablecoin issuers hold U.S. Treasury bills as reserves.

So instead of paying off debt, stablecoins often increase demand for Treasuries — they help finance the debt rather than erase it.

πŸ‘‰ Some economists think stablecoins could increase U.S. financial power globally and make it easier to sustain high debt —  though not eliminate it.

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Alright — this is where it gets interesting, 
The new Trump Govt is a fan of crypto.
I wonder if this is related to the US deficit ???
The real debate is whether crypto vs stable coins can be used to  pay off U.S. debt?

πŸ‘‰ maybe the better question is could stablecoins actually make it easier for the U.S. to carry large debt long-term?

Many analysts think the answer is possibly yes — for a few key reasons.

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🌎 1) Stablecoins Can Expand Global Demand for Dollars

Most major stablecoins are dollar-based. When people in other countries use them:
+They’re effectively using digital U.S. dollars
+Thus demand for dollar assets increases worldwide

Why that matters:
+When global demand for dollars rises, demand for U.S. Treasuries often rises too.
+More buyers of Treasuries = lower borrowing costs for the U.S.
Think of stablecoins as exporting the dollar into places traditional banking never reached.

🏦 2) Stablecoin Reserves Often Buy U.S. Debt
Large stablecoin issuers typically back their tokens with:
+Treasury bills
+Cash
+Short-term government securities

So when stablecoins grow:
+Issuers may buy more Treasuries to back them
+That indirectly helps finance U.S. deficits.

In simple terms:
πŸ‘‰ More stablecoin usage → more Treasury demand → potentially cheaper borrowing for the government.

U.S. dollar-based stablecoin issuers hold much of their reserves in short-term U.S. Treasuries. The two largest USD stablecoins by market capitalization, Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC, report holding 62% and 29% of their total reserves in T-bills, respectively.

3) Faster Digital Dollar Networks Strengthen Dollar Dominance
One big threat to U.S. debt sustainability would be losing the dollar’s global reserve status.

Stablecoins might actually reinforce it by making dollars:
+Easier to move across borders
+Faster than traditional banking rails
+Accessible without U.S. bank accounts

If businesses worldwide settle in dollar-stablecoins instead of other currencies, the U.S. keeps a powerful advantage:

πŸ’‘ It can borrow in its own currency at scale.

πŸ“‰ 4) Lower Interest Pressure (The Real Prize)
The biggest risk with $37T debt isn’t the total — it’s the interest payments.

If stablecoins increase demand for Treasuries:
+Interest rates on government debt could stay lower than they otherwise would.
+That makes the debt more manageable even if it keeps growing.

Economists sometimes call this maintaining “financial gravity” around the dollar.

Risks:

This isn’t automatically good for the U.S.
There is a Regulatory risk
If stablecoins grow too large without oversight:
+Bank deposits could shrink
+Financial stability issues could emerge

There is also the risk of Loss of control
Private companies issuing dollar-like money can complicate monetary policy.

And there is the risk of Competition
If non-USD stablecoins (e.g., yuan-based) gain traction, they could weaken dollar demand instead.

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