VEA

 VEA

25-7-26

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https://koalagains.com/stocks/ASX/vea

https://stockanalysis.com/quote/asx/vea/statistics/

https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/vea

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ASX-VEA/financials-overview/

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Over the last 5 years (2021–2026), Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX:VEA) has experienced high cyclical volatility, peaking with strong refining margins in 2022 before sliding into widening net losses, rising leverage, and negative returns on equity by 2025/2026. [1, 2]

Financial Performance Summary

Profit & Earnings

Volatility: VEA saw a banner profit year in FY2022 with a net income of $514.3 million, driven by high global refining margins. [1]
Downturn: Profits dropped sharply to near-breakeven ($3.8 million) in FY2023, followed by a net loss of -$76.3 million in FY2024, and a wider net loss of -$421.1 million in FY2025. [1, 2, 3]
Revenue: Revenue remained high in the realm of ~$26 billion to $30 billion annually (sitting at roughly $28.53 billion TTM by mid-2026), but compressed margins and operational challenges kept the bottom line negative. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Debt

Leverage: Total long-term debt and loan capital roughly doubled over the 5-year period.
Current Load: Long-term debt increased from about $2.7 billion in 2023 to over $5.56 billion by the end of FY2025/2026, reflecting heavy capital outlays and retail network expansions. Net debt positions have sat heavily against a market cap of roughly $4.10 billion. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Return on Equity (ROE)

Peak: ROE reached a high of 23.0% at the peak of the cycle in December 2022.
Trough: Due to subsequent heavy losses, ROE dropped into negative territory (-3.5% in 2024) and plummeted to a 5-year low of -25.3% by late 2025/2026. [1, 2]

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Viva Energy Group Limited (ASX: VEA) currently trades at a loss with a negative trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratio of approximately -8.0x to -9.5x due to recent net income deficits. Because Viva Energy officially listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in July 2018, its trading history spans 8 years rather than a full decade. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Historical P/E Ratio Data (2018–2026)

The table below breaks down the annual closing P/E ratios for ASX:VEA based on historical tracking from Companies Market Cap and GuruFocus: [1, 2, 3]

Year	P/E Ratio	Key Driver / Context
2026 (Current)	At Loss (~ -8.7x)	Widened refining margins impact; EPS lags at -A$0.26.
2025	-8.2x	Annual net loss reported at A$421.1 million.
2024	-59.4x	Earnings entered negative territory following global macroeconomic shifts.
2023	> 1,000x	Near-breakeven minimal positive earnings spikes technical ratio distortion.
2022	7.3x	Post-pandemic refining boom pushed earnings up, dropping the multiple.
2021	12.6x	Strong recovery from Covid-19 supply chain blockages.
2020	-70.8x	At a loss due to unprecedented fuel demand crashes during global lockdowns.
2019	24.0x	Standard normalized operating environment.
2018	4.2x	Initial valuation compression immediately following the mid-year IPO.

Historical Context & Insights

10-Year Metric Bounds: Over its entire listed lifetime, the median P/E ratio for the company sits at 18.7x. The absolute peak maxed out temporarily over 1,900x during an earnings squeeze, while the minimum boundaries drop into "At Loss" territories. [1]
Cyclical Exposure: As a major downstream oil refinery operator (owning the Geelong Refinery and supplying Shell-branded service stations), Viva Energy’s earnings are inherently bound to volatile global refining margins. This cyclicality explains the massive fluctuations from steep losses to sudden single-digit P/E ratios. [1]
Forward Outlook: Despite the negative trailing ratios, equity analysts tracking VEA see an earnings rebound ahead. According to Stock Analysis, the company trades at a forward-looking P/E ratio of 7.2x, suggesting a projected recovery into profitability over the next calendar cycle. [1, 2]

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For Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX:VEA), the current Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) sits at approximately 2.89%, while the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is estimated around 4.13% to 7.73%. Over the past decade, VEA’s ROIC has frequently lagged behind its WACC during softer refining and retail margin cycles, reflecting value-tread/destruction phases typical of capital-intensive downstream oil and refining operations. [1, 2]

Capital Efficiency Breakdown for ASX:VEA

ROIC (Return on Invested Capital): ~2.89% (trailing metrics show low/declining capital returns due to recent margin headwinds and profitability shifts). [1, 2]
WACC (Cost of Capital): ~4.13% to 7.73% depending on debt-to-equity weighting and prevailing risk-free rates. [1, 2]
The Economic Spread: Because ROIC has trended below WACC in recent periods, the structural spread is negative, indicating a period where capital reinvestment has struggled to outpace the cost of financing. [1, 2, 3]

Historical Context (10-Year Trajectory)

Listing Timeline: Viva Energy only listed on the ASX in July 2018, meaning a full 10-year public corporate history is unavailable. [1]
Volatility: Over its available trading history, WACC has fluctuated from lows near 3.27% to highs near 7.81%, tightly bound to changing interest rate environments and heavy infrastructure/retail capital outlays (such as the OTR acquisition rollout). [1]
Profitability Milestones: Only roughly half of the past 10 structural/operating years have produced clear economic value additions above cost of capital, constrained by cyclical oil refining margins and transitioning convenience store network investments. [1, 2]

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