Monday, 1 April 2024

myr

 MYR - Myer
12-7-26

-------------------
ASX:MYR (Myer Holdings) has had a highly volatile 5-year run, highlighted by a massive statutory net loss of A 211.2million in FY2025 [1.4.8] due to a A 213.3 million non-cash impairment from its apparel business acquisition. While it maintains robust cash flows, high debt loads and a negative ROE continue to weigh on the retailer's balance sheet. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Financial Breakdown (5-Year Trajectory)
  • Profitability: Volatile. After surviving pandemic headwinds, Myer achieved brief statutory profits in FY2022 and FY2023 (e.g., A\(60.4M)[1.2.1].However,inFY2025,amassivenon-cashimpairmentpushedthecompanytoafull-yearstatutorylossofA\)211.2 million. In 1H2026, Myer bounced back to report a statutory net income of A$40.3 million. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Consistently weak. Driven by the recent multi-million dollar impairment and margin pressures, Myer currently sits with a trailing twelve months (TTM) ROE of approximately \(-22.14\%\). [1, 2, 3]
  • Debt: Strained balance sheet. Myer carries a total debt burden of about A$1.54 billion. The company operates with a high Debt/Equity ratio (over \(166\%\)) and its net-cash position remains strained depending on short-term lease accounting and distribution center investments. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7]
Current Market & Outlook
Myer’s stock has severely underperformed the broader ASX, driven by intense e-commerce competition, structural challenges in the department store model, and cautious consumer spending. While the company's dividend yields remain attractive (hovering around \(4.8\%\) to \(6.2\%\) over the past year), its overall price action and long-term valuation metrics reflect deep investor skepticism. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
----------------
The 10-year mean historical Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for Myer Holdings Limited (ASX: MYR) is 12.27, with a median of 8.67. Due to retail volatility, store restructures, and impairment charges, Myer's earnings have fluctuated drastically, occasionally forcing the company into net losses where the P/E ratio became negative or fundamentally skewed. [1, 2]
Historical P/E Ratio by Calendar Year
The table below displays Myer's annual P/E ratios tracking back over the past decade: [1]
YearP/E RatioKey Financial Context
2025-4.30Driven into a net loss from major non-cash impairment assets.
202416.60Rebound in full-year profit margins before strategic shifts.
20238.71Trading at a low multiple despite post-pandemic sales recovery.
20226.68Higher profitability compressions alongside a low stock price.
20216.97Post-lockdown optimization metrics and leaner operational structure.
2020-0.79Negative earnings caused by global pandemic closures.
201915.50Moderate stability period under revised turnaround strategies.
2018-0.61Significant statutory losses due to massive brand write-downs.
20178.40Compressed earnings margins via aggressive discount clearance cycles.
201611.20Hit an intra-year peak baseline tracking closer to historical market norms.
Historical Extremes
  • Highest Peak: The highest single-quarter P/E spike occurred in July 2016, briefly reaching 293.18 due to an isolated collapse in quarterly earnings per share (EPS) while the stock price remained flat.
  • Lowest Trough: The lowest point dropped to -28.35 in July 2023 during structural financial reporting corrections. [1, 2]
Strategic Considerations for Investors
  1. Negative Multiples ("At Loss"): When reviewing trackers like Investing.com, years listed with a negative P/E or marked as "At Loss" indicate the company failed to generate positive Net Profit After Tax (NPAT). [1]
  2. Volatility Metrics: Myer's historical trends demonstrate how vulnerable department store equities are to structural consumer behavior changes and localized macroeconomic cycles.
  3. Alternative Valuation Tools: Because retail earnings swing sharply, structural analysts frequently substitute erratic P/E timelines with Price-to-Sales (P/S) tracking or EV/EBITDA comparisons to establish baseline sector values. [1]
------------------------
ROIC vs WACC 2026
For Myer Holdings Ltd (ASX:MYR), the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) has mostly trailed its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) over the past 10 years, reflecting periods of compressed retail margins and economic value destruction. Current metrics show an ROIC of approximately -4.75% against a WACC of roughly 7.20% to 9.0%. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Capital Returns vs. Cost of Capital
  • Current ROIC: -4.75% (trailing twelve months) indicating negative net operating profit relative to total invested capital.
  • Estimated WACC: 7.20% – 9.0% driven by retail sector discount rates, cost of equity, and lease liabilities.
  • 10-Year Trend: Barring brief post-lockdown retail rebounds in 2021–2022, Myer's historical ROIC has frequently sat below its hurdle rate WACC, meaning baseline operations have struggled to consistently generate true economic value above financing costs
................

No comments:

Post a Comment