BSL Bluescope steel
05-july 2026
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ASX:BSL (BlueScope Steel) has experienced a highly cyclical five-year period. The company generated massive pandemic-era profits peaking in FY2022 but has since seen earnings decline significantly due to softer steel spreads and cyclical headwinds. Despite the downturn, BSL maintained a robust balance sheet with minimal debt. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Financial Highlights over the Last 5 Years
- Profitability: Net profit skyrocketed to a record AUD 2.81 billion in FY2022 on the back of historic steel spreads. Since then, profits have progressively tapered down. FY2024 net profit sat at AUD 804 million, before dropping to AUD 83.8 million in FY2025 due to challenging cyclical market conditions and asset impairments. [1, 2, 3, 4]
- Debt: BlueScope has maintained an exceptionally conservative balance sheet, operating in a net cash position for much of this period. As of recent figures, the Debt-to-Equity ratio sat comfortably around 8% to 10%, with cash and equivalents exceeding outstanding debt. [1, 2, 3]
- Return on Equity (ROE): ROE followed the broader profit cycle. It spiked to an impressive 32.2% in FY2022 before trending downwards to 10.1% in FY2023 and 7.6% in FY2024. In the most recent trailing twelve months, ROE has compressed to roughly 3.4%. [1, 2]
Recent Developments
- Takeover Bids: In early 2026, BlueScope rejected unsolicited takeover proposals from Seven Group Holdings (SGH) and Steel Dynamics. The final revised A$32.35 per share proposal was spurned by the board as undervaluing the company. This is mostly why I own shares in this company. [1, 2]
- Shareholder Returns and Dividends: BlueScope declared unfranked dividends of A$1.00 & A$0.65 per share (see that crazy spikes in the dividend of Jan & Feb 2026). The board indicated plans to significantly rebase returns, targeting to distribute at least 75% of free cash flow as ordinary dividends (we will see). There is zero franking, so keep this within super. [1, 2]
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PE ratios
Over the last 10 years, BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL) has traded at a 10-year median P/E ratio of 10.59. Its valuation fluctuates heavily due to the highly cyclical nature of global steel prices and manufacturing margins. [1, 2]
As of July 2026, its current Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) P/E ratio sits at roughly 54.95, driven upward by a sharp drop in earnings per share over the last couple of years. [1, 2, 3]
10-Year Historical P/E Ratio Overview
| Year [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7] | Approximate P/E Ratio | Valuation Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 (Current TTM) | ~54.95 | Cyclical earnings dip; stock price remains resilient. |
| 2025 | ~48.13 to 128 | Subdued global steel demand compressed compressed margins. |
| 2024 | 11.23 to 11.5 | Moderating earnings but closer to long-term averages. |
| 2023 | 9.43 to 11.14 | Normalization from pandemic-era record highs. |
| 2022 | 2.58 to 2.61 | Historically low P/E due to record windfall profits. |
| 2021 | 9.27 | Strong post-COVID infrastructure boom boost. |
| 2020 | ~15.5 | Industrial slowdowns caused by global pandemic lockdowns. |
| 2019 | ~6.5 | Strong building and construction demand globally. |
| 2018 | ~9.2 | Steady margins across US and Australian divisions. |
| 2017 | ~12.8 | Recovery phase driven by restructuring efficiencies. |
| 2016 | ~18.5 | Turning point from previous loss-making years. |
Crucial Financial Insights For BSL
When reviewing BlueScope's historical multiples, keep these factors in mind:
- The "Cyclical Trap": BlueScope often looks cheapest (lowest P/E) at the top of its profit cycle (e.g., 2.58x in 2022) because its immediate earnings are temporarily inflated. Conversely, it looks expensive (high P/E) at the bottom of a cycle when its earnings drop but investors hold the stock anticipating a recovery. [1, 2]
- Long-Term Medians: While the historical 10-year mean is skewed high (~24.4) by occasional low-earnings periods, the 10-year median sits at a lean 10.59. [, 2]
- Forward Expectations: Analysts project a significant rebound in earnings over the next 3 years, which drops its Forward P/E ratio much lower than the current trailing figures. [1, 2]
charts
below $26 its a buy
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