Monday, 10 February 2025

JBH - JB HiFI

 JBH 
30/6/26
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Summary - last 5 years
Over the last 5 years, ASX:JBH (JB Hi-Fi) has delivered resilient but moderating financial performance. Driven by a pandemic-era consumer spending boom, revenue and profit peaked in 2022, normalized in 2023–2024, and rebounded in 2025–2026. The company remains highly profitable, maintains a low-risk debt profile, and continues to reward shareholders with strong returns and dividends.

Below is a chart of dividend growth (in $AUD). Is it a dividend Aristocrat?
The current yield is 3%.

Key 5-Year Financial Metrics (FY2021 – FY2026)
  • Revenue: Experienced steady growth. After peaking at an annualized rate of $10.55 billion in FY2025 and seeing further sales growth in 1H FY2026, the company continues to outpace pre-pandemic levels. 
  • Profit (NPAT): Hovered between $439 million and $545 million. FY2022 was the 5-year high ($545 million) before tapering off. However, the first half of FY2026 showed a solid bounce-back, with Net Income After Tax (NPAT) up 7.1% to $305.8 million. 
  • Return on Equity (ROE): Remained exceptionally robust. It peaked at a massive 42.1% in FY2022 and has since normalized to hover around 29.2% as consumer spending patterns level out. 
  • Debt: JBH maintains a conservative and healthy balance sheet. Total net debt sits around $340 million, with a  debt-to-equity ratio of about 42.2%, meaning the company holds more equity than debt. 

  • Dividends: JBH has historically been a strong and reliable dividend payer. The payout ratio generally sits between 70–80% of net profit, offering investors a trailing yield above 5%. 
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PE ratios
The historical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX:JBH) has fluctuated over the last 10 years between a low of 6.9x to 8.0x during the post-COVID retail cooling period and a high of 26.1x to 27.6x during the late 2025 retail stock rally. Its current 10-year median sits at approximately 13.5x to 15.8x. [1, 2, 3]
10-Year Annual P/E Ratio History
The table below represents the annual trailing P/E ratios for JB Hi-Fi recorded at the end of each fiscal period: [1, 2, 3]
Year [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]P/E RatioValuation Context
2026 (Current TTM)17.5xModerating from peak as earnings stabilize.
202526.1xShare price peak alongside trailing cyclical retail demand.
202415.2xReturn to historical median ranges.
20239.1xMarket compressed valuations due to rising interest rates.
20228.0xRecord profits post-COVID lowered the P/E multiple.
202111.5xElevated earnings from the work-from-home electronics boom.
202016.4xEarly pandemic demand spikes.
201911.8xStable, mature-stage retail trading.
201811.1xMinor compression over broader retail sector fears.
201715.1xIntegration of The Good Goods acquisition.
201615.6xBaseline historical trading multiple.
Historical Averages & Context
  • 10-Year Median: 13.47x to 15.84x (varies slightly by TTM calculation method). [1]
  • Cyclical Volatility: Between 2021 and 2023, JBH traded at single-digit P/E ratios despite record net income. This happened because the market assumed peak pandemic earnings were unsustainable. [1]
  • The 2025 Spike: The sudden rise to a P/E over 26x in 2025 was driven by a sharp increase in share price ahead of actual trailing earnings, which has since normalized back toward 17.5x. [1, 2]
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ROIC vs WACC

JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX:JBH) has historically maintained a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), though recent macroeconomic shifts have narrowed this spread. [1, 2, 3, 4]

10-Year Trend Summary (2016–2026)
  • ROIC Trajectory: JBH’s ROIC has typically fluctuated between 15% and 30%+ during peak retail periods (notably surging during the 2021–2022 consumer electronics boom with returns on equity/capital exceeding 40%) and settling around 11.54% to 15.94% in the most recent trailing periods. [1, 2, 3]
  • WACC Trajectory: For most of the past decade, low interest rates kept JBH's WACC anchored around a 6% to 7% median (10-year median WACC sits near 6.72%). However, rising global and domestic interest rates have pushed the current WACC up to approximately 8.50%–11.88%. [1, 2, 3]
  • Economic Spread (ROIC vs. WACC): For years, JBH enjoyed a massive positive spread where ROIC vastly outpaced WACC, signifying heavy value creation. In recent higher discount-rate environments, WACC has risen closer to parity with current ROIC levels (~11.54% ROIC vs ~11.88% WACC). [1, 2]
Key Current Metrics
  • Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 11.54% (TTM baseline) up to an annualized 15.94% depending on exact quarterly calculation inputs.
  • Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): Estimated between 7.86% (Alpha Spread model) and 11.88% (GuruFocus high-rate model).
  • Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): ~30.16%. [1, 2, 3, 4]

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