Saturday, 28 September 2019

QUS - BETASHARES S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF

 QUS - BETASHARES S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ETF
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Buffet anaylsis - NIB holdings vs ARGO & QUS

I was searching for a  ASX listed ETF that holds US stocks except for mag 10 stocks.

If by “MAG 10” you mean the largest 10 US mega-cap stocks (roughly Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, etc.), there are a few ASX-listed ETFs that can give you US exposure while reducing or removing the concentration in those companies.

The closest fit: ASX:QUS

QUS is the Betashares S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF.

It holds 500 US companies, but instead of weighting them by market capitalisation, each company is approximately equally weighted. That dramatically reduces the influence of the MAG 10.

For example, in a normal S&P 500 ETF, Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft can represent a very large percentage of the portfolio. In QUS, each company is roughly 0.2% at each rebalance.

ETFUS exposureMAG 10 exposureApproach
QUS๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 100%Much lowerS&P 500 equal weight
IVV๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 100%HighS&P 500 market cap
NDQ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 100%Very highNasdaq 100
MOAT๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ~100%Moderate54 wide-moat companies
BGBL๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ~70%+Moderate/highGlobal developed markets
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example: 29/9/26

Top 10 Holdings
CodeCompanyAsset
PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc0.27%
TECHBio-Techne Corp0.26%
ZBRAZebra Technologies Corp Ordinary Shares - Class A0.26%
GPNGlobal Payments Inc0.26%
EXPEExpedia Group Inc0.26%
Top 10 Holdings
CodeCompanyAsset
DASHDoorDash Inc Ordinary Shares - Class A0.25%
MTDMettler-Toledo International Inc0.25%
BAXBaxter International Inc0.25%
IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc0.25%
IPInternational Paper Co0.25%

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Buffet analysis sept 2026\\

Evaluating Argo Investments (ASX: ARG), NIB Holdings (ASX: NHF), and Betashares S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (ASX: QUS) through a Warren Buffett-style value lens requires checking their economic moats, capital allocation discipline, pricing power, and fundamental value metrics. [1, 2, 3]
Importantly, these three assets represent completely different structures: ARG is a Listed Investment Company (LIC), NHF is an operating private health insurance company, and QUS is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking 500 large-cap US equities. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
๐Ÿ“Š Comparative Metrics Summary
The long-term performance and valuation metrics reflect the stark structural differences between these vehicles:
MetricArgo Investments (ASX: ARG)NIB Holdings (ASX: NHF)Betashares S&P 500 Equal Wt (ASX: QUS)
Asset TypeListed Investment Company (LIC)Operating Corporate Stock (Insurance)Exchange Traded Fund (US Equities)
P/E Ratio~25.8x~15.1x to 16.9x~14.7x (Fund Aggregate)
Dividend Yield (TTM)~4.2% (100% Franked)~4.4% to 4.8% (100% Franked)~2.1% to 2.6% (Unfranked)
10-Year Growth (p.a.)~5.5% – 6.0% (Total Return)~9.9% (Dividend Growth Rate)~11.3% (Total Return)
Dividend Growth StyleSlow, ultra-stable, highly cyclical managedStrong compounder, tied to premium hikesDriven by aggregate US corporate earnings

๐Ÿ”Ž Buffett-Style Deep Dive
1. Economic Moat & Pricing Power
  • ASX: NHF (Wide/Narrow Economic Moat): Buffett loves insurance operations (like GEICO) because they generate "float"—cash from premiums collected upfront before claims are paid. As one of Australia's dominant private health insurers, NIB possesses significant pricing power, historically passing rising healthcare costs onto consumers via government-approved annual premium hikes.
  • ASX: ARG (No Structural Moat, High Trust): ARG does not own an operating business; it owns a slice of the ASX 200. Its "moat" is an incredibly low internal management expense ratio (0.10%) and an iconic reputation built since 1946. However, it cannot outpace the broader Australian economy. [1]
  • ASX: QUS (Systemic Moat): QUS provides an equal-weighted slice of the 500 largest US companies. Instead of market-cap weighting (which over-concentrates in overvalued tech giants), it rebalances quarterly. Buffett famously advocates for low-cost US index funds because they capture the unstoppable tailwind of American corporate ingenuity. [1, 2]
2. P/E Ratio & Valuation
  • ASX: NHF trades at the most attractive value multiple (~15x). For an operating entity with strong return on equity, this offers a higher "earnings yield" (the inverse of P/E), which is a core Buffett criteria. [1]
  • ASX: ARG looks statistically expensive at ~25x earnings. This occurs because its underlying earnings consist mainly of the dividends it receives from its portfolio, rather than the raw net profits of those underlying companies. [1]
  • ASX: QUS offers a healthy aggregate value play at ~14.7x P/E. By stripping away the top-heavy valuation premium of mega-cap tech, the equal-weighted S&P 500 represents a much more historically reasonable valuation framework. [1]
3. Dividend Sustainability & Dividend Growth
  • ASX: NHF is a classic dividend champion, boasting an impressive 10-year dividend growth rate of roughly 9.9% per annum. Its dividends are well-covered by earnings (72% payout ratio).
  • ASX: ARG prioritizes dividend smoothing. They hoard cash during boom years to pay steady dividends during recessions. Its payout ratio frequently edges over 100% during cyclical downturns, making it exceptionally dependable for retirees but slower to experience high compounding growth.
  • ASX: QUS yields less (~2.1% to 2.6%) because American firms prefer share buybacks over dividends. Buffett highly approves of share buybacks, provided the stock is undervalued, as it increases your fractional ownership without triggering immediate dividend tax liabilities. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
4. Long-Term 10-Year Growth Comparison
  • QUS is the clear winner on a 10-year total return basis, averaging over 11.3% per annum, largely driven by the structural dominance of US equities and a depreciating Australian Dollar over the decade.
  • NHF has delivered phenomenal compounding wealth over the long haul, though it incurs higher volatility due to regulatory risks and claims inflation.
  • ARG lags behind in raw capital growth (~26.5% total growth over 10 years without compounding), but matches standard Australian index returns once you factor in the massive tax benefit of 100% franking credits. [1, 2, 3]

๐Ÿ’ก The Value Investor's Verdict
  • Choose NHF if you want a classic Buffett operating business with true pricing power, an attractive entry valuation, and strong dividend growth.
  • Choose QUS if you subscribe to Buffett’s primary directive to bet on the broader American economy via an insulated, value-tilted indexing strategy.
  • Choose ARG if your primary goal is an ultra-safe, fully-franked income stream and you care more about avoiding downside volatility than maximizing capital expansion. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

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